A forward earnings multiple of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.14 frame an inexpensive consulting business with 24% upside to analyst targets, but three consecutive quarters of earnings misses and a 10% revenue contraction suggest the valuation discount reflects genuine operational deterioration rather than temporary mispricing.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Contracting Ten Percent→Stable
- Compelling Low Multiple Valuation→Stable
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Consulting Services
Sell if holding. At $74.85, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
ICF International is a professional services and technology consulting firm serving government and commercial clients across energy, environment, disaster recovery, health and social programs, and security markets. The company generated $1,872.9 million in 2025 revenue with a... Read more
Sell if holding. At $74.85, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About ICF International, Inc.
About ICF International, Inc.
ICF International drew 43% of its $1,872.9 million in 2025 revenue from U.S. federal government contracts, down from 54% in 2024, while state, local, and international government clients contributed 24% and commercial clients grew to 33%, up from 25% a year earlier. The Reston, Virginia-based consultancy closed the year with a $3,405.0 million backlog and approximately 8,400 employees across 49 U.S. regional offices and 14 offices abroad, including the U.K., Belgium, Spain, India, and Canada.
ICF earns revenue as a prime contractor and, on some engagements, a subcontractor across five integrated service lines — Advisory, Program Implementation, Analytics, Digital, and Engagement Services — delivered through a single reportable operating segment. Half of 2025 revenue, 50%, came from fixed-price contracts that put cost-overrun risk on ICF rather than the client, up from 45% in 2023, while the remainder split between time-and-materials and cost-based arrangements typical of GSA Schedule and other indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity vehicles that require competing for individual task orders rather than relying on a steady multi-year revenue stream. Federal work is concentrated in energy and utility programs, public health and social-program evaluation, and cybersecurity and disaster-recovery mitigation, the last built on more than 25 years of post-disaster deployments following storms such as Katrina, Helene, and Milton. The December 2024 acquisition of Applied Energy Group added over 100 utility management and demand-side energy experts to expand ICF's higher-margin commercial energy advisory business.
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ICF's sharpest near-term risk is federal budget exposure, and 2025 supplied a live case study: the Department of Government Efficiency's actions drove contract terminations and temporary stop-work orders concentrated in the first and second quarters of 2025, a key reason federal revenue share fell to 43% from 54% the prior year even as the commercial book grew to 33% of revenue. Because federal contracts are typically funded incrementally as Congress appropriates money, any future continuing resolution, government shutdown, or debt-ceiling standoff carries the same mechanism for delaying or canceling the $3,405.0 million backlog ICF is counting on, particularly the unfunded portion that depends on appropriations ICF does not control.
See also: Industrials · Consulting Services
From ICF International, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — ICF International, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS ICF International (ICFI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS ICF International (ICFI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - FinancialContent — FinancialContent neutral
- NEWS The surprise hidden in ICF International (ICFI) last earnings report - newser.com — newser.com neutral
- NEWS The surprise hidden in ICF International (ICFI) last earnings report - Newser — Newser positive
- NEWS ICF International (ICFI) Expected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Thursday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T11:31:43Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. federal government43%10-K Item 1A: 'We derived approximately 43%, 54%, and 55% of our revenue in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively, from contracts with federal government clients'
- MEDIUMProductfixed-price contracts50%10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 50%, 46%, and 45% of our total revenue from fixed-price contracts in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $74.85, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $69.61. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $89.46 (+19.5% upside). Prior stop was $69.61. Stop-loss: $69.61.
Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
ICF International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover ICFI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $105.
What does ICF International, Inc. do?ICF International is a professional services and technology consulting firm serving government and commercial clients...
ICF International is a professional services and technology consulting firm serving government and commercial clients across energy, environment, disaster recovery, health and social programs, and security markets. The company generated $1,872.9 million in 2025 revenue with a $3,405.0 million backlog, drawing 43% of revenue from U.S. federal government contracts, 24% from state, local, and international governments, and 33% from commercial clients, employing about 8,400 people worldwide.