Axon Enterprise is growing revenue 35% YoY with a wide moat and a 43.1% gap to the analyst target against 11.9% downside, but the stock is 44% off its high in a confirmed downtrend with earnings in 4 days. The setup is a speculative recovery, not a confirmed turn.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat Thin Profitability→Stable
- Rapid Revenue Growth→Stable
- Large Upside To Analyst Target→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $424.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Axon Enterprise provides integrated hardware and software solutions for public safety, spanning TASER energy devices, body cameras, drones and cloud-based SaaS platforms including Axon Evidence and Draft One. Annual recurring revenue totaled $1.3 billion at December 31, 2025,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $424.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Axon Enterprise (AXON) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to Note - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Axon Enterprise vs. CrowdStrike: Which Security Stock Is a Better Buy? - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Needham reiterates Axon stock rating citing product innovation - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Axon Enterprise slides as income falls, inventory grows (AXON:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Aug 5, 2026 negative
- NEWS Axon Stock Falls After AI, Drone Wins Fuel Q2 Earnings Beat - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily Aug 5, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductCEDs and related products10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our revenues from sales of CEDs and related products and services'
- MEDIUMSupplierTASER 10 CED raw material suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We also purchase raw materials for TASER 10 CEDs from a limited number of suppliers...Because of the unique requirements of TASER 10 CEDs, we cannot change suppliers easily'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOWDirector Matthew McBrady notified the Board on April 6, 2026, that he will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. He will serve until his term expires at the Annual Meeting. No disagreement with operations, policies or practices cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOWDirector Julie Anne Cullivan notified the Board on March 5, 2026, that she will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. She will serve until her term expires at the Annual Meeting. No disagreement with operations, policies or practices cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $424.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $394.49. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $612.33 (+44.4% upside). Prior stop was $394.49. Stop-loss: $394.49.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 5.0/10.
Axon Enterprise, Inc. trades at a P/E of 176.0 (forward 40.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts rate AXON, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 19 analysts publish price targets averaging $680.
What does Axon Enterprise, Inc. do?Axon Enterprise provides integrated hardware and software solutions for public safety, spanning TASER energy devices,...
Axon Enterprise provides integrated hardware and software solutions for public safety, spanning TASER energy devices, body cameras, drones and cloud-based SaaS platforms including Axon Evidence and Draft One. Annual recurring revenue totaled $1.3 billion at December 31, 2025, with no customer representing more than 10% of net sales. Software and Services and Connected Devices are the two reportable segments realigned in 2025.