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Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $396.76, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: CEDs; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Axon provides integrated hardware (TASER CEDs, body cameras, drones) and cloud-based SaaS solutions (evidence management, records, AI productivity tools) primarily to law enforcement globally, across two segments: Software and Services, and Connected Devices. Annual recurring... Read more

$396.76+61.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#5 of 46 Aerospace & Defense
Stop $367.93Target $637.16(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$707.96+78.4%18 analysts
$637.16our TP
$396.76price
$707.96mean
$825

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $396.76, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: CEDs; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 61%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: CEDs
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)263.5
P/E (Fwd)37.9
Mkt Cap$32.3B
EV/EBITDA605.2
Profit Mgn4.5%
ROE4.5%
Rev Growth38.5%
Beta1.60
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV102%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. federal, state and local law enforcement
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest customer vertical is U.S. federal, state and local law enforcement.'
  • HIGHProductCEDs
    10-K Item 1A: 'We substantially depend on sales of our CEDs, and if these products do not continue to be widely accepted, our growth prospects, operating results and financial condition will be diminished.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOW
    Director Matthew McBrady notified Axon's Board on April 6, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement with the Company on any matter cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOW
    Director Julie Anne Cullivan notified Axon's Board on March 5, 2026 that she will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement with the Company on any matter cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
3.2
Bollinger
4.5

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
3.4
Growth Rank
8.4
Industry growth leader
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 4.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $339.01Resistance $422.61

Price Targets

$368
$637
A.Upside+60.6%
A.R:R4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXON stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $396.76, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: CEDs; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $637.16 (+60.6%), stop $367.93 (−7.8%), A.R:R 4.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $637.16 (+61.1% upside). Target $637.16 (+60.6%), stop $367.93 (−7.8%), A.R:R 4.3:1. Stop-loss: $367.93.

What are the risks of investing in AXON?

Concentration risk — Product: CEDs; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is AXON overvalued or undervalued?

Axon Enterprise, Inc. trades at a P/E of 263.5 (forward 37.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AXON?

28 analysts cover AXON with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $708.

What does Axon Enterprise, Inc. do?Axon provides integrated hardware (TASER CEDs, body cameras, drones) and cloud-based SaaS solutions (evidence...

Axon provides integrated hardware (TASER CEDs, body cameras, drones) and cloud-based SaaS solutions (evidence management, records, AI productivity tools) primarily to law enforcement globally, across two segments: Software and Services, and Connected Devices. Annual recurring revenue reached $1.3 billion as of December 31, 2025, driven by multi-year software subscriptions alongside hardware sales.

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