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Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $395.00: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Axon Enterprise develops integrated hardware and software for public safety including TASER CEDs, body cameras, fleet cameras, drones, and cloud SaaS (Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Fusus). Annual recurring revenue totaled $1.3 billion as of December 31, 2025. The... Read more

$395.00+51.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#8 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.20%
Stop $364.88Target $595.83(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$662.04+67.6%18 analysts
$595.83our TP
$395.00price
$662.04mean
$825

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $395.00: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Axon Enterprise, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 52%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)158.8
P/E (Fwd)37.1
Mkt Cap$31.6B
EV/EBITDA318.2
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE6.8%
Rev Growth33.7%
Beta1.44
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.96neutral
IV70%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOW
    Director Julie Anne Cullivan will not stand for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOW
    Director Matthew McBrady will not stand for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.2
Quality Rank
4.8
Growth Rank
7.6
GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $366.00Resistance $438.97

Price Targets

$365
$596
A.Upside+50.8%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts28
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$662

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $395.00: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Prior stop was $364.88. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $595.83 (+51.9% upside). Prior stop was $364.88. Stop-loss: $364.88.

What are the risks of investing in AXON?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is AXON overvalued or undervalued?

Axon Enterprise, Inc. trades at a P/E of 158.8 (forward 37.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXON?

28 analysts cover AXON with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $662.

What does Axon Enterprise, Inc. do?Axon Enterprise develops integrated hardware and software for public safety including TASER CEDs, body cameras, fleet...

Axon Enterprise develops integrated hardware and software for public safety including TASER CEDs, body cameras, fleet cameras, drones, and cloud SaaS (Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Fusus). Annual recurring revenue totaled $1.3 billion as of December 31, 2025. The company's largest customer vertical is U.S. law enforcement; no single customer exceeded 10% of net sales in 2025, 2024, or 2023.

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