Value
4.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 40.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.56
AXON · Why this verdict
Why Axon Enterprise (AXON) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Axon Enterprise is growing revenue 35% YoY with a wide moat and a 43.1% gap to the analyst target against 11.9% downside, but the stock is 44% off its high in a confirmed downtrend with earnings in 4 days. The setup is a speculative recovery, not a confirmed turn.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Axon has a wide moat (7.1/10) and a Piotroski score of 8/9, but profitability is thin with ROE scoring 2.1/10 and operating margin 2.1/10. Quality breakdown | Operating margin should expand as scale grows, lifting the quality score above 6.0. | →Stable |
| CounterLow returns and a 40.7x forward multiple mean the moat has not yet produced the earnings that justify the valuation. | ||
Axon is growing revenue at 35% YoY, scoring the maximum 10/10 on revenue growth, though earnings growth scores 0.0/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 25% YoY and earnings growth should turn positive over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 40.7x already prices in sustained growth, and zero earnings growth means revenue is not yet reaching the bottom line. | ||
At $427.77 the stock is 43.1% below the $612.33 analyst target versus 11.9% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 3.6. Estimated upside | Price should close part of the gap to the $612.33 target over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock sits 44% below its high in a downtrend, so analysts may be slow to cut targets that already look stale. | ||
Price is below a 200-day average falling 4.8% over 30 days with falling on-balance volume, but a recovery setup is forming with MACD improving and RSI at 56. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and the momentum score should rise above 5.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA death cross is in place and distribution volume continues, so rallies in a confirmed downtrend often fail. | ||
Axon beat EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a 34.5% beat in February 2026 and a 24.1% miss in November 2025, and reports again in 4 days. Earnings track record | EPS should beat estimates in the report due 2026-11-05 and the following quarter. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSurprises swing widely, and with implied volatility at 110% a single miss could cut the stock sharply. | ||
Axon has a wide moat (7.1/10) and a Piotroski score of 8/9, but profitability is thin with ROE scoring 2.1/10 and operating margin 2.1/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin should expand as scale grows, lifting the quality score above 6.0.
CounterLow returns and a 40.7x forward multiple mean the moat has not yet produced the earnings that justify the valuation.
Axon is growing revenue at 35% YoY, scoring the maximum 10/10 on revenue growth, though earnings growth scores 0.0/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 25% YoY and earnings growth should turn positive over 12 months.
CounterA forward P/E of 40.7x already prices in sustained growth, and zero earnings growth means revenue is not yet reaching the bottom line.
At $427.77 the stock is 43.1% below the $612.33 analyst target versus 11.9% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 3.6.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the $612.33 target over 12 months.
CounterThe stock sits 44% below its high in a downtrend, so analysts may be slow to cut targets that already look stale.
Price is below a 200-day average falling 4.8% over 30 days with falling on-balance volume, but a recovery setup is forming with MACD improving and RSI at 56.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and the momentum score should rise above 5.5.
CounterA death cross is in place and distribution volume continues, so rallies in a confirmed downtrend often fail.
Axon beat EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a 34.5% beat in February 2026 and a 24.1% miss in November 2025, and reports again in 4 days.
↓DeterioratingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates in the report due 2026-11-05 and the following quarter.
CounterSurprises swing widely, and with implied volatility at 110% a single miss could cut the stock sharply.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 63%
Insider
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $26,722,951 (0.077% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 0.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 6.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸High IV: 115%
- ▸Above max pain $260
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:4.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.92
Upside
+46.9%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.4, Quality at 5.2, and Catalyst at 5.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.0, Momentum at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from current 35%.
- P2Large Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 15% from current 43.1%.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Recovery Attempt
Trip ifPrice falls below the stop of $397.83 with momentum score below 3.5 from current 4.5.
- P4Earnings Beats With Event Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Wide Moat Thin Profitability
Trip ifOperating margin component stays below 2.0 on a 0 to 10 scale for 4 consecutive quarters.