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AVPTAvePoint, Inc.Sell6.3·$13.54+0.82%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

This software infrastructure company delivers strong double-digit revenue growth and has beaten earnings three of the last four quarters with a favorable reward-to-risk profile at current prices, but heavy enterprise segment concentration and elevated leverage are meaningful offset risks while the technical picture remains in recovery mode.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth ProfileStable
  • Enterprise Concentration Leverage RiskImproving
  • Earnings Beat Track RecordStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. At $13.54, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%).

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The... Read more

$13.54+7.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#18 of 104 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.87%
Stop $12.66Target $14.54(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$16.71+23.4%13 analysts
$14.54our TP
$13.54price
$16.71mean
$26

Sell if holding. At $13.54, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%)
Thin upside margin: 7.6%
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.3
P/E (Fwd)27.1
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA46.6
Profit Mgn15.3%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta1.19
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductEnterprise segment52%
    10-K Item 1: 'the Enterprise segment accounted for 52% of our total annual recurring revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.61Resistance $14.38

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.Upside+7.6%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $13.54, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.66. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.54 (+7.6% upside). Prior stop was $12.66. Stop-loss: $12.66.

What are the risks of investing in AVPT?

Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is AVPT overvalued or undervalued?

AvePoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.3 (forward 27.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AVPT?

20 analysts cover AVPT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $17.

What does AvePoint, Inc. do?AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+...

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The Enterprise segment (>5,000 seats) drove 52% of total ARR at end of 2025, with ~6,000 channel partners handling most SMB and mid-market distribution.

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