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AVPTAvePoint, Inc.Hold6.3·$14.28
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

This software infrastructure company delivers strong double-digit revenue growth and has beaten earnings three of the last four quarters with a favorable reward-to-risk profile at current prices, but heavy enterprise segment concentration and elevated leverage are meaningful offset risks while the technical picture remains in recovery mode.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth Profile→Stable
  • Enterprise Concentration Leverage Risk→Stable
  • Earnings Beat Track Record→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The... Read more

$14.28+2.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#22 of 102 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.64%
Stop $13.28Target $14.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$16.81+17.7%14 analysts
$14.62our TP
$14.28price
$16.81mean
$26

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(5), earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.94)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.6
P/E (Fwd)29.4
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA51.3
Profit Mgn15.3%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta1.17
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductEnterprise segment52%
    10-K Item 1: 'the Enterprise segment accounted for 52% of our total annual recurring revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(5)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.61Resistance $15.43

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.4% upside)
! News modifier +2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVPT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $14.62 (+2.4%), stop $13.28 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.62 (+2.4% upside). Target $14.62 (+2.4%), stop $13.28 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $13.28.

What are the risks of investing in AVPT?

Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is AVPT overvalued or undervalued?

AvePoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.6 (forward 29.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AVPT?

20 analysts cover AVPT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $17.

What does AvePoint, Inc. do?AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+...

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The Enterprise segment (>5,000 seats) drove 52% of total ARR at end of 2025, with ~6,000 channel partners handling most SMB and mid-market distribution.

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