Value
4.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 34.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
AVPT · Why this verdict
Why AvePoint (AVPT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AvePoint is a growing software compounder with 22% YoY revenue growth, a wide moat and a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak. At $17.09 the price is 13.0% above the $14.87 analyst target and near its 52-week high, so the stock looks fully valued ahead of earnings in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business has strong growth of 22% YoY, a wide economic moat, gross margin scoring 10/10 and a Piotroski score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 18% while margins hold near 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating margin scores only 3.3/10 and Rule of 40 only 5.5/10, so growth has not yet translated into strong profitability. | ||
The Enterprise segment makes up 52.0% of the product mix, a high concentration, and insiders have sold $3.4M recently. Bear case | Enterprise share should stay stable or drop as other segments expand. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEnterprise customers carry the stickiest contracts and highest value, so concentration may support, not threaten, recurring revenue. | ||
AvePoint has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with surprises of 13% to 71%, showing consistent operating execution. Bull case | EPS should keep beating estimates in the next 4 reports, including the one due in 4 days. | →Stable |
| CounterEPS figures are tiny ($0.08 to $0.13), so large percentage surprises can be noise, and a stock above its target needs more than a beat. | ||
The price of $17.09 is 13.0% above the $14.87 analyst target, with 15.0% downside to the stop, leaving a negative reward-to-risk of -0.87. Estimated upside | Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or the stock should consolidate to restore a positive gap. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag strong operating results; a beat in 4 days could trigger target hikes and justify the premium. | ||
RSI is overbought at 71, on-balance volume is falling and a 7.4x volume surge occurred on a selloff, pointing to distribution near the 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool below 65 while price holds above its 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPrice remains above the 200-day average and MACD is at the maximum 10, so trend strength may outweigh the volume warnings. | ||
The business has strong growth of 22% YoY, a wide economic moat, gross margin scoring 10/10 and a Piotroski score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 18% while margins hold near 15%.
CounterOperating margin scores only 3.3/10 and Rule of 40 only 5.5/10, so growth has not yet translated into strong profitability.
The Enterprise segment makes up 52.0% of the product mix, a high concentration, and insiders have sold $3.4M recently.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Enterprise share should stay stable or drop as other segments expand.
CounterEnterprise customers carry the stickiest contracts and highest value, so concentration may support, not threaten, recurring revenue.
AvePoint has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with surprises of 13% to 71%, showing consistent operating execution.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- EPS should keep beating estimates in the next 4 reports, including the one due in 4 days.
CounterEPS figures are tiny ($0.08 to $0.13), so large percentage surprises can be noise, and a stock above its target needs more than a beat.
The price of $17.09 is 13.0% above the $14.87 analyst target, with 15.0% downside to the stop, leaving a negative reward-to-risk of -0.87.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or the stock should consolidate to restore a positive gap.
CounterAnalyst targets lag strong operating results; a beat in 4 days could trigger target hikes and justify the premium.
RSI is overbought at 71, on-balance volume is falling and a 7.4x volume surge occurred on a selloff, pointing to distribution near the 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool below 65 while price holds above its 200-day average.
CounterPrice remains above the 200-day average and MACD is at the maximum 10, so trend strength may outweigh the volume warnings.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 7.7 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.36 (n=2)
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,430,412 (0.096% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
- ▸Above max pain $11
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.63
Upside
-9.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.63 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.0, Catalyst at 7.2, and Quality at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 4.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7, and Insider at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.63 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Durable Growth Wide Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from current 22%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice stays more than 10% above the analyst target after the next earnings report, from current 13.0% above.
- P4Overbought Distribution Volume
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 from current 71 while on-balance volume keeps falling.
- P5Enterprise Segment Concentration
Trip ifEnterprise segment share exceeds 60% from current 52.0%.