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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitHigh Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Wait for pullback to $12.90. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.59. Engine's entry $12.90 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: LUPKYNIS; Concentration risk — Supplier: Lonza.

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company commercializing LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for lupus nephritis, directly in the U.S. and through an Otsuka collaboration in Europe, Japan, the U.K., and Switzerland. 2025 net product sales... Read more

$15.59+10.4% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#1 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.23%
Entry $12.90(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $11.64Target $16.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$17.00+9.0%7 analysts
$16.54our TP
$15.59price
$17.00mean
$21

Wait for pullback to $12.90. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.59. Engine's entry $12.90 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: LUPKYNIS; Concentration risk — Supplier: Lonza. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-5.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 7.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.7 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: LUPKYNIS
Concentration risk — Supplier: Lonza
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.2
P/E (Fwd)13.9
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA11.0
Profit Mgn100.0%
ROE65.0%
Rev Growth24.4%
Beta1.45
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$8-48.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductLUPKYNIS
    10-K Item 1A: 'The success of our business is substantially dependent on our ability to successfully commercialize LUPKYNIS, our sole approved product.'
  • HIGHSupplierLonza
    10-K Item 1: 'Voclosporin requires a specialized drug substance manufacturing process and is manufactured by Lonza, our sole supplier for drug substance.'
  • HIGHSupplierCatalent
    10-K Item 1: 'Catalent Pharma Solutions ("Catalent") is currently the sole supplier for the preparation of our voclosporin capsules.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Kevin Tang, Chair of Aurinia's Board since 2024, appointed CEO and principal executive officer effective March 23, 2026. No disagreement with Company operations cited. Tang is founder of Tang Capital Management.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.64%=EXTREMENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.40Resistance $16.88

Price Targets

$12
$13
$17
A.Upside+6.1%
A.R:R-0.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.3% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AUPH stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $12.90. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.59. Engine's entry $12.90 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: LUPKYNIS; Concentration risk — Supplier: Lonza. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-5.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $16.54 (+6.1%), stop $11.64 (−33.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 7.0/10, high confidence.

What is the AUPH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.54 (+10.4% upside). Target $16.54 (+6.1%), stop $11.64 (−33.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $11.64.

What are the risks of investing in AUPH?

Concentration risk — Product: LUPKYNIS; Concentration risk — Supplier: Lonza; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing).

Is AUPH overvalued or undervalued?

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at a P/E of 7.2 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AUPH?

13 analysts cover AUPH with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc do?Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company commercializing LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved...

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company commercializing LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for lupus nephritis, directly in the U.S. and through an Otsuka collaboration in Europe, Japan, the U.K., and Switzerland. 2025 net product sales were $271.3 million, up 25% year-over-year. The company is also developing aritinercept, a dual BAFF/APRIL inhibitor for autoimmune diseases, in early clinical stages.

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