Aurinia is a highly profitable biotech with a wide moat, 98% margins and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but price is 5.9% above the analyst target and earnings growth is modest.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Margins And Moat→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Price Above Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals markets LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis, generating $271.3 million in 2025 net product sales. Revenue comes from direct U.S. commercialization through specialty pharmacies and a supply and royalty... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $16.56 vs the analyst target $15.91: -3.9% upside; No upside left. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 116d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the only FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis, generated $271.3 million in net product sales for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals in 2025 — a 25% increase from $216.2 million in 2024 — with operating cash flows of $135.7 million, up 206% year over year. Aurinia commercializes LUPKYNIS directly in the United States and supplies product to Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for Japan, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland under a collaboration agreement signed in December 2020. The company held $398.0 million in cash, equivalents, and investments at December 31, 2025, and repurchased 12.2 million shares for $98.2 million during the year.
Aurinia sells LUPKYNIS in the U.S. through two specialty pharmacies and a specialty distributor, with payer coverage from commercial plans and government programs including Medicaid and Medicare. Outside the U.S., Otsuka has obtained regulatory approval in Japan, the EU, the UK, and Switzerland; Aurinia earns royalties of 10% to 20% on Otsuka Territory net sales. Manufacturing is entirely outsourced: Lonza is the sole supplier of voclosporin drug substance at a dedicated Monoplant facility, Catalent Pharma Solutions is the sole supplier of voclosporin capsules, and a sole supplier handles blistering and packaging of U.S. commercial cartons. In the U.S., LUPKYNIS competes against BENLYSTA (belimumab, marketed by GSK plc) and GAZYVA (obinutuzumab, marketed by Genentech, Inc.), both injectable therapies, as well as off-label use of mycophenolate mofetil and corticosteroids. In February and March 2025, eight generic companies including Hikma, Teva Pharmaceuticals, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, and Sandoz filed ANDAs challenging the 2037 dosing patents; Aurinia filed patent infringement complaints against each, triggering a Hatch-Waxman 30-month regulatory stay.
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Three sole-source supply relationships expose Aurinia to manufacturing disruption risk with no short-term mitigation path. Lonza serves as the sole drug substance manufacturer at a dedicated Monoplant contracted through March 31, 2030, at a fixed quarterly facility fee of 3.6 million Swiss Francs for exclusive use rights — a cost that continues regardless of production volume. Catalent Pharma Solutions is the sole encapsulator and an unnamed third supplier handles all blistering and packaging of U.S. commercial cartons. The 10-K notes that the long-term commercial success of LUPKYNIS depends in part on the ability of contract manufacturers to supply cGMP-compliant product without interruption, and that an interruption from any sole-source supplier could adversely affect LUPKYNIS commercial sales.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 1, 2026Recent Developments — Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) Stock Price Slips After Q3 Earnings Strength - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Nov 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS AUPH 261120 16.00P (AUPH261120P16000) Stock Options Chain | Quotes & News - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Aurinia earnings on deck as Lupkynis growth momentum tested By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Aurinia earnings on deck as Lupkynis growth momentum tested By Investing.com - Investing.com Australia — Investing.com Australia Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Aurinia earnings on deck as Lupkynis growth momentum tested By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 1, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:30Z.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
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Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $16.56 vs the analyst target $15.91: -3.9% upside; No upside left. Analyst target $15.91 reached (−3.9%), stop $15.04 (−10.1%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $15.91 reached (−3.9% from $16.56); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $15.91 reached (−3.9%), stop $15.04 (−10.1%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $15.04.
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at a P/E of 7.3 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Hold.
12 analysts rate AUPH, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $18.
What does Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc do?Aurinia Pharmaceuticals markets LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis,...
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals markets LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis, generating $271.3 million in 2025 net product sales. Revenue comes from direct U.S. commercialization through specialty pharmacies and a supply and royalty arrangement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical for Japan, EU, UK, and Switzerland markets. Manufacturing relies entirely on sole-source contractors: Lonza for drug substance and Catalent for encapsulation.