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ADMA Biologics Inc (ADMA) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

Sell(was: Hold)VALUE-TRAP 1/5AI GATE: BLOCKED Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.64 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

ADMA Biologics manufactures and commercializes plasma-derived biologics ASCENIV and BIVIGAM (IVIG for primary immunodeficiency) and Nabi-HB (Hepatitis B immune globulin) at its FDA-licensed fractionation facility in Boca Raton, FL with 600,000-liter annual capacity. Revenue... Read more

$8.64+65.0% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#4 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.92%
Stop $8.03Target $14.24(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst target$16.75+93.9%4 analysts
$14.24our TP
$8.64price
$16.75mean
$20

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.64 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — ADMA Biologics Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
High-quality business
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.7
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA203.6
Profit Mgn32.4%
ROE43.3%
Rev Growth15.9%
Beta0.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C7.00bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$35+305.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.3
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.50Resistance $11.42

Price Targets

$8
$14
A.Upside+64.8%
A.R:R4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADMA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.64 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $8.03. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADMA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.24 (+65.0% upside). Prior stop was $8.03. Stop-loss: $8.03.

What are the risks of investing in ADMA?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67); Negative momentum.

Is ADMA overvalued or undervalued?

ADMA Biologics Inc trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADMA?

10 analysts cover ADMA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $17.

What does ADMA Biologics Inc do?ADMA Biologics manufactures and commercializes plasma-derived biologics ASCENIV and BIVIGAM (IVIG for primary...

ADMA Biologics manufactures and commercializes plasma-derived biologics ASCENIV and BIVIGAM (IVIG for primary immunodeficiency) and Nabi-HB (Hepatitis B immune globulin) at its FDA-licensed fractionation facility in Boca Raton, FL with 600,000-liter annual capacity. Revenue comes from product sales and plasma collection operations; the company projects >$635M annual revenue potential in 2026 from the Boca Facility.

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