Value
6.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.3x
AUPH · Why this verdict
Why Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aurinia is a highly profitable biotech with a wide moat, 98% margins and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but price is 5.9% above the analyst target and earnings growth is modest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Profitability is exceptional, with 98% margins, 61% ROE, a wide economic moat and a Rule of 40 score of 58 (pass). Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 80% and ROE above 40% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 45% of net income, a flagged earnings-quality weakness, and a single-product biotech faces binary patent and competition risk. | ||
Aurinia has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including 0.23 versus 0.22 expected in the latest report. Earnings track record | EPS continues to beat at the 2027-03-01 report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe latest beat of 4.6% is the smallest of the streak, and a large 1.53 EPS in February 2026 inflates the average surprise. | ||
Price of $16.65 is 5.9% above the $15.66 analyst target, so no upside remains to the target and reward-to-risk is negative. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised or the stock retraces toward the $15.82 entry level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCoverage is light (7 analysts), and a perfect earnings record could prompt upward target revisions. | ||
Cyclical risk is flagged: the P/E is expanding 2.2x as earnings normalize, with earnings growth scoring only 2.0. Bear case | Earnings growth recovers above 10% YoY as the one-off effects roll off. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarnings were inflated by a one-time EPS of 1.53, so lower reported earnings may not reflect weaker core operations. | ||
The technical setup is a breakout, with a golden cross, price above all moving averages and RSI 52, though on-balance volume is falling. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and momentum stays above 5.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution, and a breakout above the analyst target has limited fundamental support. | ||
Profitability is exceptional, with 98% margins, 61% ROE, a wide economic moat and a Rule of 40 score of 58 (pass).
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 80% and ROE above 40% over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 45% of net income, a flagged earnings-quality weakness, and a single-product biotech faces binary patent and competition risk.
Aurinia has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including 0.23 versus 0.22 expected in the latest report.
→StableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat at the 2027-03-01 report.
CounterThe latest beat of 4.6% is the smallest of the streak, and a large 1.53 EPS in February 2026 inflates the average surprise.
Price of $16.65 is 5.9% above the $15.66 analyst target, so no upside remains to the target and reward-to-risk is negative.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised or the stock retraces toward the $15.82 entry level.
CounterCoverage is light (7 analysts), and a perfect earnings record could prompt upward target revisions.
Cyclical risk is flagged: the P/E is expanding 2.2x as earnings normalize, with earnings growth scoring only 2.0.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings growth recovers above 10% YoY as the one-off effects roll off.
CounterEarnings were inflated by a one-time EPS of 1.53, so lower reported earnings may not reflect weaker core operations.
The technical setup is a breakout, with a golden cross, price above all moving averages and RSI 52, though on-balance volume is falling.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and momentum stays above 5.0.
CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution, and a breakout above the analyst target has limited fundamental support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 3.6 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 61%
- ▸Strong margins: 98%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 45% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 7.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.8 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.6 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.32 (n=3)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $546,373 (0.025% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 9.7 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 1.2 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $17.11 vs the analyst target $15.91: -7.0% upside; No upside left.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|SANITY:BUY+upside<=0Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:116d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.92
Upside
-7.0%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.9=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 8.7 and asymmetric R:R of -0.92.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.7, Catalyst at 7.4, and Value at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 4.0, Technical at 4.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Margins And Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 70% from the current 98%.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 15% from the current 5.9%.
- P4Earnings Normalization Risk
Trip ifEarnings growth stays below 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Breakout Above Moving Averages
Trip ifPrice drops below the $15.01 stop level from the current $16.65.