Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.25
- ▸Attractively valued
AUPH · Why this verdict
Why Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 3.3 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 65%
- ▸Strong margins: 100%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 42% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $12,455,227 (0.612% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 9.7 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-6.5% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.61%=HEAVY
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.92
Upside
-6.5%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.43>1.3, MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.9=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 9.3 and asymmetric R:R of -0.92.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.3, Quality at 8.7, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Sentiment at 5.4, Technical at 5.6, and Peer rank at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.92 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.