Arrowhead is a high-growth biotech (171% YoY revenue growth, 56.4% upside to the $93.71 analyst target) that is still cash-burning and reliant on a single approved product, so the recovery setup carries binary risk with earnings due in 23 days.
Thesis pillars
- Explosive Revenue Growth→Stable
- Modest Cash Burn→Stable
- Single Product Dependence↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 25, 2025
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $57.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: single approved product; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform, with REDEMPLO (plozasiran) receiving FDA approval in November 2025 for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome as its first commercial product, plus 18 drug candidates in clinical trials. Revenue... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $57.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: single approved product; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
About Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' first commercial product, REDEMPLO (plozasiran), received FDA approval in November 2025 as the first and only siRNA treatment for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome. The company held 18 drug candidates in clinical trials at the time of filing—including Phase 3 studies for severe hypertriglyceridemia—and maintained collaboration agreements with Takeda, GSK, Amgen, Sarepta, and Novartis, which provide non-dilutive capital to support the wholly-owned pipeline through commercialization.
Arrowhead generates revenue through REDEMPLO product sales and licensing and collaboration payments from partners. The Takeda agreement for fazirsiran (ARO-AAT) provides co-development funding and a 50/50 U.S. profit share if approved; outside the United States, Takeda holds an exclusive license and Arrowhead is eligible for 20-25% tiered royalties on net sales. Amgen owns olpasiran (ARO-LPA), a lipoprotein(a)-targeting siRNA in Phase 3 for cardiovascular disease; Arrowhead sold its royalty rights to Royalty Pharma but remains eligible for up to $485 million in remaining milestone payments from Amgen and Royalty Pharma combined. The Sarepta agreement executed in November 2024 covers multiple clinical and preclinical muscle, CNS, and lung programs. The Novartis agreement executed in August 2025 and closed October 2025 covers ARO-SNCA for synucleinopathies including Parkinson's disease. Manufacturing for clinical supplies and commercial products depends on third-party contract manufacturers, as Arrowhead holds limited internal manufacturing capacity.
Show full overview
The plozasiran program carries a distinct Phase 3 readout event beyond the FCS label: SHASTA-3, SHASTA-4, and SHASTA-5 studies for severe hypertriglyceridemia were fully enrolled at the time of filing, with a supplemental NDA planned for 2026 pending successful completion. The 10-K explicitly notes that REDEMPLO's Phase 3 PALISADE success in FCS does not guarantee approval in sHTG because endpoints and clinical data requirements differ between a rare-disease indication and a broader patient population.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Refinances Existing Credit Facility — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Arrowhead Refinances Debt, Cuts Borrowing Costs And Boosts Financial Flexibility With New $400M Sixth Street Loan — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals to Webcast 2026 Fiscal Year-End Results — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals to Present Clinical Data on ARO-DIMER-PA at AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Arrowhead Pharma To Present Three-Year Data From PALISADE Study And Open-Label Extension At American Heart Association S — benzinga Nov 2, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-06T11:43:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductsingle approved product10-K Item 1A: 'we have only one product based on RNAi and our delivery technologies approved in November 2025'
- MEDIUMSupplierthird-party manufacturers10-K Item 1A: 'must rely on third-party manufacturers to manufacture certain of our clinical supplies and our commercial products'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $57.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: single approved product; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $54.16. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $93.71 (+63.1% upside). Prior stop was $54.16. Stop-loss: $54.16.
Concentration risk — Product: single approved product; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts rate ARWR, with a consensus score of 4.3/5. 14 analysts publish price targets averaging $108.
What does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform, with REDEMPLO (plozasiran)...
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform, with REDEMPLO (plozasiran) receiving FDA approval in November 2025 for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome as its first commercial product, plus 18 drug candidates in clinical trials. Revenue flows from REDEMPLO product sales and licensing and collaboration agreements with Takeda, GSK, Amgen, Sarepta, and Novartis.