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Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: GSK; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak).

Innoviva is a diversified biopharmaceutical company combining a respiratory royalty portfolio (RELVAR/BREO ELLIPTA and ANORO ELLIPTA licensed to GSK) with an acquired critical care/infectious disease platform (GIAPREZA, XACDURO, XERAVA, ZEVTERA, NUZOLVENCE) operated through... Read more

$21.73+38.9% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#10 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.54%
Stop $20.86Target $30.18(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 5.8:1
Analyst target$35.50+63.4%4 analysts
$30.18our TP
$21.73price
$35.50mean
$18
$46

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: GSK; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Innoviva, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: GSK
Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)3.5
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn119.9%
ROE50.7%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta0.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.86bearish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyGSK
    10-K Item 1A: 'Currently, we derive the majority of our revenues from GSK and our near-term success depends in large part on GSK's ability to successfully develop and commercialize the products in the respiratory programs partnered with GSK'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
1.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
5.1
Rsi
8.4
Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 5.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.50Resistance $23.99

Price Targets

$21
$30
A.Upside+38.9%
A.R:R5.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 10x vs trail 3x (2.8x)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INVA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: GSK; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.18 (+38.9%), stop $20.86 (−4.2%), A.R:R 5.8:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the INVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.18 (+38.9% upside). Target $30.18 (+38.9%), stop $20.86 (−4.2%), A.R:R 5.8:1. Stop-loss: $20.86.

What are the risks of investing in INVA?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: GSK; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak); Negative momentum.

Is INVA overvalued or undervalued?

Innoviva, Inc. trades at a P/E of 3.5 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about INVA?

11 analysts cover INVA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Innoviva, Inc. do?Innoviva is a diversified biopharmaceutical company combining a respiratory royalty portfolio (RELVAR/BREO ELLIPTA and...

Innoviva is a diversified biopharmaceutical company combining a respiratory royalty portfolio (RELVAR/BREO ELLIPTA and ANORO ELLIPTA licensed to GSK) with an acquired critical care/infectious disease platform (GIAPREZA, XACDURO, XERAVA, ZEVTERA, NUZOLVENCE) operated through Innoviva Specialty Therapeutics. GSK royalty revenue represents the majority of near-term revenues; the company also holds a stake in Armata Pharmaceuticals and other strategic healthcare assets.

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