Archrock has strong margins and best-in-class peer returns with 16.3% upside to the analyst target, but declining revenue, two recent earnings misses, leverage and heavy contract-operations concentration make it a hold into earnings tomorrow.
Thesis pillars
- Concentration And Leverage↓Deteriorating
- Strong Margins Superior Roe↑Improving
- Recent Earnings Misses↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Archrock, Inc. (AROC) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $28.61: Concentration risk — Product: contract operations (85.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian and Eagle Ford.
Archrock provides natural gas compression services and aftermarket services across major U.S. oil and gas producing regions, operating a fleet of 5,319 units totaling 4,788,000 horsepower at December 31, 2025. Contract operations generated 85% of total 2025 revenue under fixed... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $28.61: Concentration risk — Product: contract operations (85.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian and Eagle Ford. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 110d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About Archrock, Inc.
About Archrock, Inc.
Archrock deployed 4,788,000 aggregate operating horsepower across 5,319 compression units at December 31, 2025, making it the largest outsourced compression service provider in the U.S. by fleet size. Contract operations generated 85% of total revenue in 2025, with the remaining 15% from aftermarket services. The company's fleet serves approximately 300 customers across all major U.S. natural gas and crude oil producing regions, with 60% of the fleet used in gathering and processing and 40% in gas lift applications.
Archrock earns revenue through two channels: fixed monthly fees for compression services under contract operations agreements and parts and services sales under aftermarket services. Contract operations service agreements typically carry initial minimum terms of 12 to 36 months, or up to 60 months for the largest horsepower units, after which they continue month-to-month until either party terminates with 30 days' notice. The five largest customers accounted for 35% of contract operations and aftermarket services revenue in 2025, with no single customer exceeding 10% of consolidated revenue. The Permian and Eagle Ford shales combined account for approximately three-fourths of the company's operating horsepower. Fleet standardization around major components and key suppliers, with 74% of HP from units exceeding 1,000 horsepower, reduces maintenance capital requirements and improves field technician coverage.
Show full overview
Archrock's contract operations service agreements are cancellable on 30 days' notice after initial terms that typically do not cover equipment payback periods, exposing the company to revenue loss if customers do not renew. Additionally, two customers accounted for approximately 30% of consolidated trade accounts receivable at December 31, 2025, reflecting a credit concentration beyond the revenue-based customer figures. In March 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that CFO Douglas Aron notified the company of his intention to retire, with a transition agreement in place until a successor is named or December 31, 2026.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
From Archrock, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — Archrock, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Archrock Inc. (AROC) Stock Moves -1.25%: What You Should Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Stock Momentum Tracker: Archrock, Inc. (NYSE: AROC) Adds 0.63% to USD 31.86 With CCI at 188.31 - Kalkine India — Kalkine India Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Is It Smart To Buy Archrock, Inc. (NYSE:AROC) Before It Goes Ex-Dividend? - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Is Trending Stock Archrock, Inc. (AROC) a Buy Now? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Archrock Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:29Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductcontract operations85%10-K Item 1: 'we generated 85%, 85% and 82%, respectively, of our total revenue from contract operations'
- MEDIUMCustomerfive most significant customers35%10-K Item 1A: 'Our five most significant customers collectively accounted for 35%, 35% and 33% of our revenues during the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
- HIGHGeographicPermian and Eagle Ford10-K Item 1: 'Permian and Eagle Ford shales, which, combined, account for approximately three-fourths of our operating horsepower'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-26Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Douglas S. Aron notified the company on March 25, 2026 of his intention to retire. He will continue as SVP and CFO until a successor is named or December 31, 2026. Transition and Separation Agreement executed; no involuntary departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -3.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $28.61: Concentration risk — Product: contract operations (85.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian and Eagle Ford. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $26.91. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $36.87 (+28.9% upside). Prior stop was $26.91. Stop-loss: $26.91.
Concentration risk — Product: contract operations (85.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian and Eagle Ford; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0.
Archrock, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.7 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts rate AROC, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $42.
What does Archrock, Inc. do?Archrock provides natural gas compression services and aftermarket services across major U.S. oil and gas producing...
Archrock provides natural gas compression services and aftermarket services across major U.S. oil and gas producing regions, operating a fleet of 5,319 units totaling 4,788,000 horsepower at December 31, 2025. Contract operations generated 85% of total 2025 revenue under fixed monthly fee agreements; the five largest customers accounted for 35% of combined contract operations and aftermarket services revenue.