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Archrock, Inc. (AROC) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Wait for pullback to $36.36. BUY gates pass at $39.00, but concentration risk — Product: contract operations (85.0%) and concentration risk — Geographic: Permian and Eagle Ford shales (75.0%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $36.36 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Archrock is the largest U.S. natural gas compression services provider by fleet horsepower, operating ~5,319 units totaling 4.8 million HP across major U.S. producing regions via Contract Operations (fixed monthly fees) and Aftermarket Services. Contract operations generated 85%... Read more

$39.00+7.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#14 of 31 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.23%
IncomeYield2.31%(5y avg 4.76%)Payout45.08%sustainable
Entry $36.36(support + ATR)Stop $34.57Target $39.07(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1Setup A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$41.56+6.6%9 analysts
$39.07our TP
$39.00price
$41.56mean
$38
$46

Wait for pullback to $36.36. BUY gates pass at $39.00, but concentration risk — Product: contract operations (85.0%) and concentration risk — Geographic: Permian and Eagle Ford shales (75.0%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $36.36 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Archrock, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: contract operations (85.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian and Eagle Ford shales (75.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.7
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$6.7B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn21.4%
ROE22.7%
Rev Growth7.7%
Beta0.93
Dividend2.31%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV43%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 5 customers35%
    10-K Item 1: 'our five most significant customers collectively accounted for 35%, 35% and 33%, respectively, of our contract operations and aftermarket services revenue'
  • HIGHProductcontract operations85%
    10-K Item 1: 'we generated 85%, 85% and 82%, respectively, of our total revenue from contract operations'
  • HIGHGeographicPermian and Eagle Ford shales75%
    10-K Item 1: 'Permian and Eagle Ford shales, which, combined, account for approximately three-fourths of our operating horsepower'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Douglas S. Aron notified the Company on March 25, 2026 of his intention to retire. Aron will remain as CFO until a successor is named or December 31, 2026, whichever is earlier. No successor named at time of filing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-24Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation committee adopted 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program on February 18, 2026, setting cash incentive targets for named executive officers ranging from 75% to 125% of eligible earnings. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.5
Revenue Growth
4.4
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.64Resistance $39.87

Price Targets

$35
$36
$39
A.Upside+0.2%
A.R:R-0.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AROC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $36.36. BUY gates pass at $39.00, but concentration risk — Product: contract operations (85.0%) and concentration risk — Geographic: Permian and Eagle Ford shales (75.0%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $36.36 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $39.07 (+0.2%), stop $34.57 (−12.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AROC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.07 (+7.5% upside). Target $39.07 (+0.2%), stop $34.57 (−12.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $34.57.

What are the risks of investing in AROC?

Concentration risk — Product: contract operations (85.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian and Eagle Ford shales (75.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AROC overvalued or undervalued?

Archrock, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AROC?

15 analysts cover AROC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Archrock, Inc. do?Archrock is the largest U.S. natural gas compression services provider by fleet horsepower, operating ~5,319 units...

Archrock is the largest U.S. natural gas compression services provider by fleet horsepower, operating ~5,319 units totaling 4.8 million HP across major U.S. producing regions via Contract Operations (fixed monthly fees) and Aftermarket Services. Contract operations generated 85% of total revenue in 2025; 74% of the fleet exceeds 1,000 HP per unit, concentrated in the Permian and Eagle Ford shales.

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