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Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale (82.8%).

Kodiak Gas Services is a leading provider of large horsepower contract compression infrastructure in the U.S., operating a fleet of 4.5 million horsepower (80% large horsepower) primarily in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale under fixed monthly term contracts. Revenue is... Read more

$75.76-1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#19 of 31 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.99%
IncomeYield2.53%Payout247.37%at-risk
Stop $70.48Target $74.65(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$79.33+4.7%12 analysts
$74.65our TP
$75.76price
$79.33mean
$60
$94

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale (82.8%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Positive news sentiment (+0.56)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale (82.8%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)99.7
P/E (Fwd)24.5
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA13.5
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE5.4%
Rev Growth4.9%
Beta0.95
Dividend2.53%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale83%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 82.8% of our compression assets were deployed in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale'
  • MEDIUMCustomerfour largest customers32%
    10-K Item 1: 'our four largest customers accounted for approximately 32%, 32%, and 33%, respectively, of our total revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
3.7
Growth Rank
5.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80EARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $61.68Resistance $76.17

Price Targets

$70
$75
A.Upside-1.5%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale (82.8%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $70.48. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.65 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $70.48. Stop-loss: $70.48.

What are the risks of investing in KGS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale (82.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.2% away).

Is KGS overvalued or undervalued?

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. trades at a P/E of 99.7 (forward 24.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KGS?

17 analysts cover KGS with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $79.

What does Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. do?Kodiak Gas Services is a leading provider of large horsepower contract compression infrastructure in the U.S.,...

Kodiak Gas Services is a leading provider of large horsepower contract compression infrastructure in the U.S., operating a fleet of 4.5 million horsepower (80% large horsepower) primarily in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale under fixed monthly term contracts. Revenue is earned from upstream and midstream customers under long-term agreements, typically 3-5 years for large horsepower, generating stable recurring cash flow. Approximately 82.8% of compression assets are deployed in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale.

Related stocks: USAC (USA Compression Partners, LP) · NESR (National Energy Services Reunit) · FLOC (Flowco Holdings Inc.) · WBI (WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC) · WHD (Cactus, Inc. Class A Common Sto)