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APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc.Hold5.6·$45.75-0.22%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

APEI has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with strong growth and positive momentum, but having already reached its analyst price target alongside modest insider selling and defensive options positioning, the risk/reward from here looks balanced rather than compelling.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Volume MomentumDeteriorating
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Strong Growth ProfileStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Our institutions offer purpose-built education programs designed to prepare individuals for productive contributions to their professions and society and to offer opportunities designed to advance students in their current professions or to help them prepare for their next... Read more

$45.75+19.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#12 of 18 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield6.10%
Stop $42.55Target $54.66(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$62.83+37.3%6 analysts
$54.66our TP
$45.75price
$62.83mean
$70

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-03
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 202667d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.5
P/E (Fwd)12.2
Mkt Cap$837M
EV/EBITDA9.1
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE15.6%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta1.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV53%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.9
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Quality Rank
3.6
Value Rank
4.8
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 67d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.23Resistance $53.66

Price Targets

$43
$55
A.Upside+19.5%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (67d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APEI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $54.66 (+19.5%), stop $42.55 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APEI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.66 (+19.5% upside). Target $54.66 (+19.5%), stop $42.55 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $42.55.

What are the risks of investing in APEI?

Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is APEI overvalued or undervalued?

American Public Education, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.5 (forward 12.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about APEI?

14 analysts cover APEI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $63.

What does American Public Education, Inc. do?Our institutions offer purpose-built education programs designed to prepare individuals for productive contributions to...

Our institutions offer purpose-built education programs designed to prepare individuals for productive contributions to their professions and society and to offer opportunities designed to advance students in their current professions or to help them prepare for their next career.

Related stocks: TAL (TAL Education Group) · PXED (Phoenix Education Partners, Inc) · COUR (Coursera, Inc.) · LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.) · GOTU (Gaotu Techedu Inc.)
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