Skip to main content
APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc.Hold5.4·$44.80-0.72%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

APEI has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with strong growth and positive momentum, but having already reached its analyst price target alongside modest insider selling and defensive options positioning, the risk/reward from here looks balanced rather than compelling.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Volume MomentumDeteriorating
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakDeteriorating
  • Strong Growth ProfileDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Our institutions offer purpose-built education programs designed to prepare individuals for productive contributions to their professions and society and to offer opportunities designed to advance students in their current professions or to help them prepare for their next... Read more

$44.80+20.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#14 of 19 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield6.18%
Stop $42.46Target $54.38(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$62.50+39.5%6 analysts
$54.38our TP
$44.80price
$62.50mean
$70

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 202688d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.52)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Weak growth
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.5
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$826M
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE15.6%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta1.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.74bearish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
4.1
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.9
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80EARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.77Resistance $54.94

Price Targets

$42
$54
A.Upside+20.5%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APEI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $54.38 (+21.4%), stop $42.46 (−5.5%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APEI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.38 (+20.5% upside). Target $54.38 (+21.4%), stop $42.46 (−5.5%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $42.46.

What are the risks of investing in APEI?

Weak growth; Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is APEI overvalued or undervalued?

American Public Education, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.5 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about APEI?

14 analysts cover APEI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $63.

What does American Public Education, Inc. do?Our institutions offer purpose-built education programs designed to prepare individuals for productive contributions to...

Our institutions offer purpose-built education programs designed to prepare individuals for productive contributions to their professions and society and to offer opportunities designed to advance students in their current professions or to help them prepare for their next career.

Related stocks: TAL (TAL Education Group) · PXED (Phoenix Education Partners, Inc) · LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.) · CVSA (Covista Inc.) · PRDO (Perdoceo Education Corporation)
Home Stocks APEI

Latest news

Latest News

Finance.yahoo.com9d ago
Yahoo Finance9d ago
Investing.com Nigeria3d ago
MarketBeat3d ago
Seeking Alpha3d agoEarnings
Investing.com3d ago
Yahoo Finance10d ago
TradingView10d ago
MarketBeat8d ago
TradingKey8d agoEarnings
TipRanks8d ago
Dars.gov.et12d agoEarnings
Quiver Quantitative6d agoEarnings
MarketBeat6d ago
TradingKey6d ago
GuruFocus13d ago
Yahoo Finance4d ago
GuruFocus4d ago
MarketBeat4d agoEarnings
MarketBeat4d agoEarnings
Loading more...