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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Wait for pullback to $154.20. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $157.32. Engine's entry $154.20 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Negative momentum.

Grand Canyon Education is an education services company providing technology, marketing, counseling, and back-office services to 20 university partners across the U.S., with Grand Canyon University (GCU, 131,800 students) as its most significant partner. Revenue is primarily... Read more

$157.32+20.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#7 of 15 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.35%
Entry $154.20(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $143.24Target $181.90(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.3:1Setup A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$214.00+36.0%2 analysts
$181.90our TP
$157.32price
$214.00mean
$230

Wait for pullback to $154.20. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $157.32. Engine's entry $154.20 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.0 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: GCU
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.0
P/E (Fwd)14.0
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA11.5
Profit Mgn19.5%
ROE29.8%
Rev Growth6.7%
Beta0.62
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C11.29bearish
IV36%normal
Max Pain$95-39.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerGCU
    10-K Item 1A: 'We expect the revenue derived from our Master Services Agreement with GCU to account for a large percentage of our revenue for the foreseeable future.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Grand Canyon Education appointed Dilek Marsh as Chief Information Officer effective February 9, 2026, consolidating the CIO and CTO roles. Ms. Marsh had been serving as the Company's Chief Technology Officer since July 2021.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.2
Growth Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
8.6
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $156.50Resistance $174.75

Price Targets

$143
$154
$182
A.Upside+15.6%
A.R:R2.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.4%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LOPE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $154.20. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $157.32. Engine's entry $154.20 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $181.90 (+15.6%), stop $143.24 (−9.8%), Setup A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LOPE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $181.90 (+20.4% upside). Target $181.90 (+15.6%), stop $143.24 (−9.8%), Setup A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $143.24.

What are the risks of investing in LOPE?

Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is LOPE overvalued or undervalued?

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.0 (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about LOPE?

8 analysts cover LOPE with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $214.

What does Grand Canyon Education, Inc. do?Grand Canyon Education is an education services company providing technology, marketing, counseling, and back-office...

Grand Canyon Education is an education services company providing technology, marketing, counseling, and back-office services to 20 university partners across the U.S., with Grand Canyon University (GCU, 131,800 students) as its most significant partner. Revenue is primarily derived from a Master Services Agreement with GCU, structured as a percentage of tuition revenue under a bundled services model.

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