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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $163.48. At $168.49 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $163.48 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Thin upside margin: 7.5%.

Grand Canyon Education provides technology, marketing, enrollment, and support services to 20 university partners across the US. GCU (over 131,800 students) is its most significant partner and accounts for a large percentage of revenue under a Master Services Agreement. GCE has... Read more

$168.49+9.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#7 of 15 Education & Training Services
Entry $163.48(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $154.21Target $181.05(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.4:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$213.00+26.4%2 analysts
$181.05our TP
$168.49price
$213.00mean
$230

Wait for pullback to $163.48. At $168.49 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $163.48 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Thin upside margin: 7.5%. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: GCU
Thin upside margin: 7.5%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.0
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA12.7
Profit Mgn19.5%
ROE28.2%
Rev Growth5.3%
Beta0.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$155-8.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerGCU
    10-K Item 1A: 'We expect the revenue derived from our Master Services Agreement with GCU to account for a large percentage of our revenue for the foreseeable future'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Dilek Marsh appointed as Chief Information Officer effective February 9, 2026, assuming former CIO responsibilities and retaining CTO role. Annual base salary increased to 346,000 with 50% target bonus.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.2
Growth Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
9.0
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.8
Earnings Growth
4.1
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $161.00Resistance $176.30

Price Targets

$154
$163
$181
A.Upside+7.5%
A.R:R1.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LOPE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $163.48. At $168.49 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $163.48 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Thin upside margin: 7.5%. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $181.05 (+7.5%), stop $154.21 (−9.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LOPE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $181.05 (+9.0% upside). Target $181.05 (+7.5%), stop $154.21 (−9.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $154.21.

What are the risks of investing in LOPE?

Concentration risk — Customer: GCU; Thin upside margin: 7.5%.

Is LOPE overvalued or undervalued?

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.0 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about LOPE?

8 analysts cover LOPE with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $213.

What does Grand Canyon Education, Inc. do?Grand Canyon Education provides technology, marketing, enrollment, and support services to 20 university partners...

Grand Canyon Education provides technology, marketing, enrollment, and support services to 20 university partners across the US. GCU (over 131,800 students) is its most significant partner and accounts for a large percentage of revenue under a Master Services Agreement. GCE has invested over 350M in technology over 17 years supporting scalable systems.

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