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Afya Limited (AFYA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Wait for pullback to $13.14. At $14.03 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.14 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Weak growth.

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical... Read more

$14.03+10.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 15 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield41.94%
IncomeYield4.67%Payout41.51%sustainable
Entry $13.14(Rr Min Solve Sticky)Stop $12.18Target $14.63(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$16.81+19.8%9 analysts
$14.63our TP
$14.03price
$16.81mean
$21

Wait for pullback to $13.14. At $14.03 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.14 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Value play: 43% MoS with quality 7.6. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Afya Limited

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.6 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.7%
Weak growth
Below 200-MA (2d, -1.1%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.6
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA2.1
Profit Mgn20.1%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta0.39
Dividend4.67%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$3-82.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.6
Revenue Growth
4.5
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.68Resistance $15.65

Price Targets

$12
$13
$15
A.Upside+4.3%
A.R:R0.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! RISK-OFF: MICRO-cap BUY_NOW needs quality>=8.5 or MoS>=50%
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFYA stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $13.14. At $14.03 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $13.14 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Value play: 43% MoS with quality 7.6. Target $14.63 (+4.3%), stop $12.18 (−15.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AFYA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.63 (+10.9% upside). Target $14.63 (+4.3%), stop $12.18 (−15.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $12.18.

What are the risks of investing in AFYA?

Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Weak growth; Below 200-MA (2d, -1.1%).

Is AFYA overvalued or undervalued?

Afya Limited trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AFYA?

13 analysts cover AFYA with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Afya Limited do?Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate,...

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical school, health sciences, and other non-health undergraduate programs, including medicine, dentistry, nursing, radiology, psychology, pharmacy, physical education, physiotherapy, nutrition, biomedicine, business administration, accounting, law, civil and industrial engineering, and pedagogy. The Continuing Education segment provides medical education, including residency preparation programs, specialization test preparation, graduate courses in medicine, and digital and in-person professional development for physicians and medical students. The Medical Practice Solutions segment offers clinical decision support platforms, medical practice management software, healthcare financial services, and digital healthcare ecosystem solutions, such as electronic medical records, practice management tools, telemedicine, digital prescriptions, and doctor-patient relationship platforms. This segment also provides a subscription-based mobile app and website portal that focuses on assisting health professionals and students with clinical decision-making through tools, such as medical calculators, charts, and updated content, as well as prescriptions, clinical scores, medical procedures and laboratory exams, and others. The company also offers educational health and medical imaging; and other programs to lifelong medical learners enrolled across its distribution network, as well as to third-party medical schools. In addition, it offers printed and digital content, as well as an online medical education platform and physicians, healthcare professionals and students. Afya Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

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