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Afya Limited (AFYA) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical... Read more

$13.85+9.7% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 15 Education & Training Services
Stop $13.40Target $15.20(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$17.47+26.1%9 analysts
$15.20our TP
$13.85price
$17.47mean
$23

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.7%
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.5
P/E (Fwd)6.5
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA2.2
Profit Mgn20.4%
ROE16.7%
Rev Growth7.5%
Beta0.51
Dividend4.65%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV120%elevated
Max Pain$13-9.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.81Resistance $16.16

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.Upside+9.7%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFYA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $15.20 (+9.7%), stop $13.40 (−3.4%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AFYA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.20 (+9.7% upside). Target $15.20 (+9.7%), stop $13.40 (−3.4%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $13.40.

What are the risks of investing in AFYA?

Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is AFYA overvalued or undervalued?

Afya Limited trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AFYA?

13 analysts cover AFYA with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Afya Limited do?Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate,...

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical school, health sciences, and other non-health undergraduate programs, including medicine, dentistry, nursing, radiology, psychology, pharmacy, physical education, physiotherapy, nutrition, biomedicine, business administration, accounting, law, civil and industrial engineering, and pedagogy. The Continuing Education segment provides medical education, including residency preparation programs, specialization test preparation, graduate courses in medicine, and digital and in-person professional development for physicians and medical students. The Medical Practice Solutions segment offers clinical decision support platforms, medical practice management software, healthcare financial services, and digital healthcare ecosystem solutions, such as electronic medical records, practice management tools, telemedicine, digital prescriptions, and doctor-patient relationship platforms. This segment also provides a subscription-based mobile app and website portal that focuses on assisting health professionals and students with clinical decision-making through tools, such as medical calculators, charts, and updated content, as well as prescriptions, clinical scores, medical procedures and laboratory exams, and others. The company also offers educational health and medical imaging; and other programs to lifelong medical learners enrolled across its distribution network, as well as to third-party medical schools. In addition, it offers printed and digital content, as well as an online medical education platform and physicians, healthcare professionals and students. Afya Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

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