Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.28
- ▸Attractively valued
ANF · Why this verdict
Why Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Abercrombie & Fitch is a high-quality, cheaply valued apparel retailer (forward P/E 12.7x, ROE 41%) with a perfect earnings beat streak and strong momentum, but the price of $164.44 already exceeds the $144.26 analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company delivers a 41% return on equity and a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a high-quality business. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% and quality score stays above 7.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterApparel retail has no strong moat, and fashion-cycle shifts can erode margins and returns quickly. | ||
Abercrombie & Fitch beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 34.9%, including a 111.9% beat in August 2026. Earnings | Continued EPS beats at the report due 2026-11-24 and in the following quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAfter a 111.9% surprise, estimates may reset higher and make further beats harder, while retail demand is cyclical. | ||
At a forward P/E of 12.7x and a PEG of 0.29, earnings growth is cheaply priced. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 15x while earnings growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA low PEG depends on earnings growth that peaked with the recent beat, and earnings may normalize. | ||
The price of $164.44 is 12.3% above the $144.26 analyst target, and it sits 1.6% from the 52-week high, leaving negative upside. Targets | Analyst targets rise above $165 or the price consolidates without falling below $152.93. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts often lag price momentum, but a stock above its target with a reward-to-risk of -0.82 has little margin for error. | ||
Momentum score is 7.0 with a golden cross, rising volume and price above all moving averages, though short interest of 15% is high. Momentum breakdown | The price holds above the 200-day average and short interest stays below 15%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA stock at a 52-week high with an RSI of 69 is stretched, and a pullback toward the $152.93 stop is plausible. | ||
The company delivers a 41% return on equity and a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a high-quality business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% and quality score stays above 7.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterApparel retail has no strong moat, and fashion-cycle shifts can erode margins and returns quickly.
Abercrombie & Fitch beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 34.9%, including a 111.9% beat in August 2026.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued EPS beats at the report due 2026-11-24 and in the following quarters.
CounterAfter a 111.9% surprise, estimates may reset higher and make further beats harder, while retail demand is cyclical.
At a forward P/E of 12.7x and a PEG of 0.29, earnings growth is cheaply priced.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 15x while earnings growth continues.
CounterA low PEG depends on earnings growth that peaked with the recent beat, and earnings may normalize.
The price of $164.44 is 12.3% above the $144.26 analyst target, and it sits 1.6% from the 52-week high, leaving negative upside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above $165 or the price consolidates without falling below $152.93.
CounterAnalysts often lag price momentum, but a stock above its target with a reward-to-risk of -0.82 has little margin for error.
Momentum score is 7.0 with a golden cross, rising volume and price above all moving averages, though short interest of 15% is high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price holds above the 200-day average and short interest stays below 15%.
CounterA stock at a 52-week high with an RSI of 69 is stretched, and a pullback toward the $152.93 stop is plausible.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.1 |
| Gross margin | 8.7 |
| Op margin | 8.0 |
| Net margin | 5.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 41%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $7,445,392 (0.111% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.5 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.1 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 5.4 |
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.05
Upside
-15.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 19d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.05 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Quality at 7.4, and Catalyst at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.7, and Momentum at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Returns Quality Business
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 25% from current 41%.
- P3Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 20x without an increase in earnings estimates.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $152.93 stop-loss level.
- P5Breakout Momentum Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of float.