AutoNation trades at a cheap 7.6x forward P/E with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but quality is below the floor (Piotroski 2/9, no moat), revenue is flat, upside to the analyst target is only 6.4% and the stock is bouncing within a confirmed downtrend.
Thesis pillars
- Weak Quality No Moat→Stable
- Cheap Forward Valuation↓Deteriorating
- Core Brand Concentration↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
AutoNation, Inc. (AN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $183.47: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
AutoNation operates 245 automotive retail stores across the United States with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30 brands, concentrated in major Sunbelt markets. Revenue streams span new and used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance and insurance products via a... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $183.47: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 98d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — AutoNation, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS JPMorgan Downgrades AutoNation to Neutral — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Buy on AutoNation, Lowers Price Target to $240 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays Lowers AutoNation Price Target to $220 — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on AutoNation, Lowers Price Target to $220 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS Citi Lowers AutoNation Price Target to $240, Maintains Buy Rating — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T12:04:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliercore brands89%10-K Item 1A: 'The core brands of vehicles that we sell, representing approximately 89% of the new vehicles that we sold in 2025...we are subject to a concentration of risk'
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida26%10-K Item 1: 'Florida| | 51 | | | 57 | | | 18 | | | 26 |'
- LOWGeographicTexas20%10-K Item 1: 'Texas| | 48 | | | 61 | | | 17 | | | 20 |'
- LOWGeographicCalifornia19%10-K Item 1: 'California| | 41 | | | 54 | | | 2 | | | 19 |'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved AutoNation's 2026 Employee Equity and Incentive Plan on April 28, 2026; allows grants of RSUs, options, and other awards; up to 1,275,000 new shares plus 883,316 carryover from the 2017 Plan.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -0.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $183.47: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Prior stop was $170.63. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $185.67 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $170.63. Stop-loss: $170.63.
Concentration risk — Supplier: core brands (89.0%); Target reached (1.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).
AutoNation, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.8 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts rate AN, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 12 analysts publish price targets averaging $213.
What does AutoNation, Inc. do?AutoNation operates 245 automotive retail stores across the United States with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30...
AutoNation operates 245 automotive retail stores across the United States with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30 brands, concentrated in major Sunbelt markets. Revenue streams span new and used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance and insurance products via a captive auto finance company; Florida (26%), Texas (20%), and California (19%) account for roughly 65% of total revenue.