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AutoNation, Inc. (AN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $181.94: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the U.S., operating 245 stores with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30 brands, concentrated in Sunbelt markets; Florida, Texas, and California together represent 65% of revenue. The company earns from new/used vehicle... Read more

$181.94+16.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#6 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield8.89%
Stop $175.15Target $211.88(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$243.55+33.9%11 analysts
$211.88our TP
$181.94price
$243.55mean
$300

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $181.94: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — AutoNation, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-8 core brands (89.0%)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.9
P/E (Fwd)7.5
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn2.5%
ROE29.3%
Rev Growth-2.1%
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.35bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$145-20.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicFlorida26%
    10-K Item 1: 'Florida| | 51 | | | 57 | | | 18 | | | 26'
  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas20%
    10-K Item 1: 'Texas| | 48 | | | 61 | | | 17 | | | 20'
  • HIGHCustomertop-8 core brands89%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The core brands of new vehicles that we sell, representing approximately 89% of the new vehicles that we sold in 2025, are manufactured by Toyota (including Lexus), Honda, Ford, General Motors, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and Volkswagen'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved the AutoNation 2026 Employee Equity and Incentive Plan at the April 28, 2026 Annual Meeting, authorizing up to 1,275,000 plus 883,316 remaining shares from the prior 2017 Plan. No officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.2
Operating Margin
1.9
Current Ratio
3.3
Piotroski F
3.3
Roa
3.9
Moat
4.2
Fcf Quality
6.0
Roe
9.8
Excellent ROE: 29%Earnings quality warning: 80% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $180.57Resistance $217.91

Price Targets

$175
$212
A.Upside+16.5%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $181.94: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $175.15. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $211.88 (+16.5% upside). Prior stop was $175.15. Stop-loss: $175.15.

What are the risks of investing in AN?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-8 core brands (89.0%); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is AN overvalued or undervalued?

AutoNation, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.9 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AN?

22 analysts cover AN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $244.

What does AutoNation, Inc. do?AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the U.S., operating 245 stores with 323 new vehicle franchises...

AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the U.S., operating 245 stores with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30 brands, concentrated in Sunbelt markets; Florida, Texas, and California together represent 65% of revenue. The company earns from new/used vehicle sales, parts and service, finance and insurance, and its captive auto finance subsidiary AutoNation Finance.

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