Skip to main content

AutoNation, Inc. (AN) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Earnings in 1 day (2026-05-01). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $208.34: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.60; Below-average business quality.

AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the U.S., operating 245 stores with 323 new vehicle franchises in major Sunbelt metropolitan markets, selling 30 new vehicle brands. Revenue comes from new and used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance and... Read more

$208.34-0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#11 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
Stop $196.43Target $207.31(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$236.64+13.6%11 analysts
$207.31our TP
$208.34price
$236.64mean
$300

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $208.34: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.60; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-1.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$7.1B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn2.3%
ROE27.1%
Rev Growth-3.9%
Beta0.81
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C2.60bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$110-47.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomercore brands representing approximately 89% of new vehicles
    10-K Item 1A: 'The core brands of vehicles that we sell, representing approximately 89% of the new vehicles that we sold in 2025, are manufactured by Toyota (including Lexus), Honda, Ford, General Motors, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and Volkswagen'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.5
Earnings Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -4%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.2
Support Resistance
1.5
52w Position
8.2

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.2
Operating Margin
1.6
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
3.4
Roa
4.1
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
6.7
Roe
9.0
Excellent ROE: 27%No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $190.91Resistance $211.54

Price Targets

$196
$207
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-01 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $208.34: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.60; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $196.43. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $207.31 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $196.43. Stop-loss: $196.43.

What are the risks of investing in AN?

Target reached (-1.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is AN overvalued or undervalued?

AutoNation, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AN?

22 analysts cover AN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $237.

What does AutoNation, Inc. do?AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the U.S., operating 245 stores with 323 new vehicle franchises...

AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the U.S., operating 245 stores with 323 new vehicle franchises in major Sunbelt metropolitan markets, selling 30 new vehicle brands. Revenue comes from new and used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance and insurance products; the company also operates 52 collision centers, 26 used vehicle stores, and a captive auto finance company. Core brands (Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, VW) represented approximately 89% of new vehicles sold in 2025.

Related stocks: OPLN (OPENLANE, Inc.) · CARG (CarGurus, Inc.) · CVNA (Carvana Co.) · BGSI (Boyd Group Services Inc.) · VVV (Valvoline Inc.)