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CarMax Inc (KMX) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.29: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.56; Below-average business quality.

CarMax is the nation's largest retailer of used vehicles, operating 256 stores in 110 US markets as of Feb 28, 2026, and sold 780,684 used vehicles at retail in fiscal 2026. Revenue comes from used vehicle sales, wholesale auctions, finance income through its CAF segment... Read more

$36.29+1.2% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#16 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-1.72%
Stop $33.73Target $36.69(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$42.17+16.2%12 analysts
$36.69our TP
$36.29price
$42.17mean
$19
$99

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.29: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.56; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val6.9Qual2.2Grw2.2Mom2.4Sent5.6Ins5.1Peer3.6Tech6.5Risk3.14.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — CarMax Inc

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (1.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.6
P/E (Fwd)13.0
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA22.9
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE4.1%
Rev Growth-1.2%
Beta1.18
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C12.56bearish
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$25-31.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board appointed Keith Barr as President and CEO, effective March 16, 2026. Mr. Barr was CEO of InterContinental Hotels Group 2017–2023. Named successor; annual base salary $1,250,000 with 175% target bonus.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    Company entered amended and restated severance agreements with executive officers including Enrique Mayor-Mora, Charles Joseph Wilson, and Shamim Mohammad. No officer departure; compensatory arrangement update.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    Board nominated William C. Cobb (CEO of Frontdoor, former H&R Block CEO) and James Kessler (CEO of RB Global) as new board director nominees for 2026 Annual Meeting. Routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
0.4
Operating Margin
0.7
Roa
1.1
Roe
1.4
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
7.6
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -36% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Revenue shrinking — -1.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.8
Volume
3.5
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
4.8
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $36.27Resistance $40.48

Price Targets

$34
$37
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-17 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KMX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.29: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.56; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $33.73. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KMX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.69 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $33.73. Stop-loss: $33.73.

What are the risks of investing in KMX?

Target reached (1.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).

Is KMX overvalued or undervalued?

CarMax Inc trades at a P/E of 21.6 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KMX?

27 analysts cover KMX with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $42.

What does CarMax Inc do?CarMax is the nation's largest retailer of used vehicles, operating 256 stores in 110 US markets as of Feb 28, 2026,...

CarMax is the nation's largest retailer of used vehicles, operating 256 stores in 110 US markets as of Feb 28, 2026, and sold 780,684 used vehicles at retail in fiscal 2026. Revenue comes from used vehicle sales, wholesale auctions, finance income through its CAF segment ($16.37B auto loan portfolio), and extended protection plan fees.

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