CarMax Inc (KMX) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.77: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
CarMax is the largest U.S. retailer of used vehicles with 256 stores in 110 U.S. TV markets; sold 780,684 used vehicles at retail in fiscal 2026. Revenue from vehicle sales, wholesale auctions (538,203 vehicles), and CarMax Auto Finance (16.37B loan portfolio). Omni-channel... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.77: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUMKeith Barr (age 55, former IHG CEO 2017-2023) appointed President and CEO effective March 16, 2026; joined the Board. Annual base salary 1.25M with 175%% target bonus. No reason cited for prior CEO departure.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOWBoard nominated William C. Cobb (Frontdoor CEO, former H&R Block CEO) and James Kessler (RB Global CEO) as director nominees for 2026 Annual Meeting. Routine board nomination.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOWAmended and restated severance agreements with named executive officers: 1.5x salary+bonus for qualifying termination post-change-of-control. Routine compensatory arrangement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Revenue shrinking — -1.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.77: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $36.42. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $48.45 (+25.0% upside). Prior stop was $36.42. Stop-loss: $36.42.
Target reached (-6.4% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
CarMax Inc trades at a P/E of 22.8 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover KMX with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $42.
What does CarMax Inc do?CarMax is the largest U.S. retailer of used vehicles with 256 stores in 110 U.S. TV markets; sold 780,684 used vehicles...
CarMax is the largest U.S. retailer of used vehicles with 256 stores in 110 U.S. TV markets; sold 780,684 used vehicles at retail in fiscal 2026. Revenue from vehicle sales, wholesale auctions (538,203 vehicles), and CarMax Auto Finance (16.37B loan portfolio). Omni-channel platform enables online, in-store, or combined purchasing.