Amplitude pairs genuine revenue growth and positive free cash flow with a failed risk/reward gate, elevated leverage, and a recent stretch of earnings misses, making the growth story real but the current entry unattractive.
Thesis pillars
- Durable Growth Profile→Stable
- Elevated Leverage Overhang↓Deteriorating
- Positive Fcf Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Technology · Software - Application
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.
Amplitude provides an AI Analytics Platform that unifies product analytics, session replay, feature and web experimentation, audience activation, and AI-driven insight tools for digital product teams. The company generates revenue primarily through subscription-based pricing... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Amplitude, Inc.
About Amplitude, Inc.
Amplitude's AI Analytics Platform served 4,797 paying customers, including 27 of the Fortune 100, as the company generated $343.2 million in revenue for fiscal year 2025, up from $299.3 million in 2024. Subscription revenue made up 98% of that total, and the company's dollar-based net retention rate reached 104% for the trailing twelve months, up from 97% a year earlier.
Amplitude earns revenue primarily by selling monthly-tracked-user subscriptions to a platform that bundles Analytics, Session Replay, Feature and Web Experimentation, Audience Activation, Guides and Surveys, and newer AI Agent and AI Feedback tools, the last of which followed the acquisitions of Command AI and Kraftful. The company reaches customers through a combination of direct sales, solution partners, and a self-serve, product-led growth motion, then expands within accounts under a land-and-expand model that layers additional products and use cases onto an initial deployment. Amplitude depends on third-party public cloud infrastructure to run its platform, naming Amazon Web Services as a driver of the timing and amount of its cloud computing costs. The company integrates with more than 100 external data sources and destinations, including Salesforce, Slack, Braze, and Snowflake, positioning its behavioral-data graph as a connective layer across a customer's existing technology stack.
Show full overview
A key open question for Amplitude is whether its bet on AI Technologies converts into durable differentiation. The company has incorporated large language models into features such as natural-language querying and automated trend summaries and expects to keep increasing investment in this area, but the 10-K cautions that market acceptance of AI-incorporated products is uncertain and that assumptions about pricing, sales cycles, and perceived value 'may be inaccurate.' That risk sits alongside ongoing litigation exposure: Amplitude is currently defending two privacy class actions, after previously defending a third, in addition to having resolved a securities class action and a related shareholder derivative suit filed in the Northern District of California.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Amplitude, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-25Recent Developments — Amplitude, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Amplitude, Raises Price Target to $11 — benzinga Jul 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Amplitude, Raises Price Target to $10 — benzinga Jul 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS 12 Information Technology Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Pre-Market Session — benzinga Jul 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS This Abbott Analyst Begins Coverage On A Bullish Note; Here Are Top 5 Initiations For Wednesday — benzinga Jul 1, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-25T09:22:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $9.61 (+19.4%), stop $7.53 (−6.9%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $9.61 (+18.6% upside). Target $9.61 (+19.4%), stop $7.53 (−6.9%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $7.53.
Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Amplitude, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 60.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
18 analysts cover AMPL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $11.
What does Amplitude, Inc. do?Amplitude provides an AI Analytics Platform that unifies product analytics, session replay, feature and web...
Amplitude provides an AI Analytics Platform that unifies product analytics, session replay, feature and web experimentation, audience activation, and AI-driven insight tools for digital product teams. The company generates revenue primarily through subscription-based pricing sold via direct sales, solution partners, and product-led growth, reporting $343.2 million in revenue for fiscal 2025 across 4,797 paying customers, including 27 of the Fortune 100. Amplitude's land-and-expand model, evidenced by a 104% dollar-based net retention rate, ties its growth to deepening usage within its existing