Amgen is a high-quality, low-beta drug manufacturer with 91% ROE and strong momentum, but at $466.01 the stock trades 23.3% above the $357.59 analyst target and depends on three wholesalers for 77% of sales, so the setup favors reducing rather than adding.
Thesis pillars
- High Return Quality Franchise→Stable
- Wholesaler Customer Concentration→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Sell if holding. At $461.26, A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cencora, and Cardinal Health (77.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (73.0%).
Amgen discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers biotechnology medicines across approximately 100 countries in one segment—human therapeutics—generating $35,148 million in product sales in 2025 (73% U.S., 27% rest of world). Three wholesale distributors (McKesson, Cencora,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $461.26, A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cencora, and Cardinal Health (77.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (73.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost earnings 0.80, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.
About Amgen Inc.
About Amgen Inc.
Amgen posted $35,148 million in product sales in 2025, with the United States representing 73% ($25,656 million) and rest-of-world 27% ($9,492 million). Products with significant 2025 milestones include UPLIZNA (two new FDA approvals—IgG4-RD in April and generalized myasthenia gravis in December), IMDELLTRA/IMDYLLTRA (Phase 3 showed 40% reduction in death risk versus chemotherapy; full FDA approval November 2025), and TEPEZZA (European Commission approval June 2025). MariTide has six global Phase 3 studies underway as of late 2025.
Amgen distributes products in the United States primarily through three large wholesale distributors—McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc., and Cardinal Health, Inc.—which collectively accounted for 77% of worldwide gross revenues in 2025, with each individually exceeding 10% of total revenues. Internationally, the company sells through its own affiliates, third-party distributors, and partnerships in Asia Pacific with Astellas Pharma, BeOne, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma, Takeda Pharmaceutical, and Kyowa Kirin. Commercial manufacturing is concentrated at the company's facility in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, with clinical manufacturing centered in Thousand Oaks, California. Key patent events include the expiration of RANKL antibody patents for Prolia and XGEVA in February 2025 (U.S.) and November 2025 (Europe), with multiple biosimilars already launched, accelerating sales erosion. CMS set a Medicare Part D price for ENBREL effective January 1, 2026, and for Otezla effective January 2027, at significantly lower prices expected to reduce profitability in Medicare.
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ENBREL faces compounding pricing pressure: CMS set a Medicare Part D price effective January 1, 2026 at significantly lower levels expected to reduce profitability in Medicare, and Colorado's PDAB established an Upper Payment Limit for ENBREL effective no earlier than January 1, 2027, with Washington state initiating a parallel affordability review in July 2025. RANKL antibody patents for Prolia and XGEVA already expired in early 2025, with multiple biosimilars launched and accelerated erosion underway—demonstrating the trajectory that may follow if U.S.-approved ENBREL biosimilars launch. Otezla faces IRA-mandated Medicare price-setting effective January 2027.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
From Amgen Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Amgen Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Amgen Q3 Earnings: Will Strong Drug Sales Offset Headwinds? - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Amgen’s Imdelltra Cut Lung Cancer Deaths by 58%. Is It Already in the Stock? - TIKR.com — TIKR.com Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Amgen (AMGN) Maintains Quarterly Dividend at $2.52 with 2.25% Yi - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Dow Jones Biotech Giant Amgen Breaks Out Ahead Of Q3 Earnings Results - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Fund Update: 28,528 AMGEN (AMGN) shares added to Crestwood Advisors Group, LLC portfolio - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 27, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:39:49Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerMcKesson, Cencora, and Cardinal Health77%10-K Item 1: 'product sales to three large wholesalers, McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc. and Cardinal Health, Inc. ... accounted for 77%, 77% and 79% of worldwide gross revenues for 2025'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States73%10-K Item 1: 'United States as our largest market ... U.S.| $| 25,656 | | 73 | %'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-19Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Peter H. Griffith announced retirement effective Aug 31, 2026. Successor Thomas Dittrich named as EVP and CFO effective Sept 1, 2026; Dittrich will initially be based in Rotkreuz, Switzerland before relocating to Thousand Oaks, CA.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUMEVP and CTO David M. Reese retiring June 30, 2026. Role eliminated; responsibilities redistributed to J. Bradner (R&D/AI), M. Gordon (Global Markets), and P. Griffith (CFO) effective June 1, 2026. Reese retirement-eligible; receives standard retirement benefits.SEC filing →
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Rating Breakdown
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Price Targets
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Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $461.26, A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cencora, and Cardinal Health (77.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (73.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $438.88. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $357.59 reached (−22.5% from $461.26); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $438.88. Stop-loss: $438.88.
Concentration risk — Customer: McKesson, Cencora, and Cardinal Health (77.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (73.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Amgen Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.6 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
42 analysts rate AMGN, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 29 analysts publish price targets averaging $397.
What does Amgen Inc. do?Amgen discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers biotechnology medicines across approximately 100 countries in one...
Amgen discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers biotechnology medicines across approximately 100 countries in one segment—human therapeutics—generating $35,148 million in product sales in 2025 (73% U.S., 27% rest of world). Three wholesale distributors (McKesson, Cencora, Cardinal Health) collectively account for 77% of worldwide gross revenues.