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AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.Sell5.6·$514.63+5.36%
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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $514.63 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC.

AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and adaptive SoCs across three segments—Data Center, Client and Gaming, and Embedded—serving cloud providers, enterprises, and embedded markets globally. A small number of customers account for a substantial portion of revenue; AMD's fabless model... Read more

$514.63+4.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#16 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.86%
Stop $475.76Target $535.51(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$486.33-5.5%48 analysts
$535.51our TP
$514.63price
$486.33mean
$225
$665

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $514.63 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)169.4
P/E (Fwd)39.0
Mkt Cap$834.2B
EV/EBITDA111.1
Profit Mgn13.4%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth37.8%
Beta2.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts57

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00bearish
IV83%elevated
Max Pain$25-95.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierTSMC
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) for the production of all wafers for microprocessor and GPU products at 7 nanometer (nm) or smaller nodes'
  • MEDIUMSupplierGLOBALFOUNDRIES
    10-K Item 1A: 'we rely primarily on GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GF) for wafers for microprocessor and GPU products manufactured at process nodes larger than 7 nm'
  • MEDIUMCustomersmall number of customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a small number of customers for a substantial portion of our business'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-15Item 1.01LOW
    AMD entered new $5.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility on May 14, 2026 (5-year), with JPMorgan Chase Bank as administrative agent, replacing prior 2022 Wells Fargo facility. No borrowings outstanding at closing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-15Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Existing Credit Agreement dated April 29, 2022 with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association as administrative agent was terminated and replaced by new JPMorgan-led revolving facility. No reason cited beyond the refinancing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
2.8
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
6.1
Forward P/E: 39.0xPEG: 1.23Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.8
Volume
3.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVE8K FLAG 1.02Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $393.36Resistance $546.44

Price Targets

$476
$536
A.Upside+4.1%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.5% upside)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $514.63 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $475.76. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $535.51 (+4.7% upside). Prior stop was $475.76. Stop-loss: $475.76.

What are the risks of investing in AMD?

Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.0): -1.5.

Is AMD overvalued or undervalued?

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. trades at a P/E of 169.4 (forward 39.0). TrendMatrix value score: 2.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMD?

57 analysts cover AMD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $486.

What does Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. do?AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and adaptive SoCs across three segments—Data Center, Client and Gaming, and...

AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and adaptive SoCs across three segments—Data Center, Client and Gaming, and Embedded—serving cloud providers, enterprises, and embedded markets globally. A small number of customers account for a substantial portion of revenue; AMD's fabless model relies on TSMC for sub-7nm wafers and GlobalFoundries for larger nodes.

Related stocks: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.)
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