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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $444.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC.

Advanced Micro Devices designs CPUs, GPUs, AI accelerators, and FPGAs for data centers, client computing, and embedded markets, with data center AI accelerators as the primary growth driver. Products are sold to OEMs, cloud hyperscalers, and distributors globally, with all... Read more

$444.50+2.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#17 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.06%
Stop $416.25Target $459.83(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$460.79+3.7%48 analysts
$459.83our TP
$444.50price
$460.79mean
$225
$625

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $444.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.6% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)138.9
P/E (Fwd)32.0
Mkt Cap$675.2B
EV/EBITDA89.7
Profit Mgn13.4%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth37.8%
Beta2.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts59

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.01bearish
IV78%elevated
Max Pain$40-91.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierTSMC
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) for the production of all wafers for microprocessor and GPU products at 7 nanometer (nm) or smaller nodes'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved fiscal 2025 EIP cash bonuses for named executives on Feb 10-11, 2026, including CEO Lisa Su ($3,125,430) and other officers. Also approved CEO value creation equity award. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
3.6
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
6.9
Forward P/E: 32.0xPEG: 1.01Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.8
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $299.76Resistance $469.21

Price Targets

$416
$460
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.3% upside)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $444.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $416.25. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the AMD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $459.83 (+2.7% upside). Prior stop was $416.25. Stop-loss: $416.25.

What are the risks of investing in AMD?

Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.6% away).

Is AMD overvalued or undervalued?

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. trades at a P/E of 138.9 (forward 32.0). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMD?

59 analysts cover AMD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $461.

What does Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. do?Advanced Micro Devices designs CPUs, GPUs, AI accelerators, and FPGAs for data centers, client computing, and embedded...

Advanced Micro Devices designs CPUs, GPUs, AI accelerators, and FPGAs for data centers, client computing, and embedded markets, with data center AI accelerators as the primary growth driver. Products are sold to OEMs, cloud hyperscalers, and distributors globally, with all advanced-node wafers (7nm and below) sourced exclusively from TSMC.

Related stocks: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.)