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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $342.90, A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of customers.

AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and AI accelerators for data center, client, gaming, and embedded markets globally, with no internal fabrication capacity. Revenue comes from selling semiconductors to cloud, enterprise, and OEM customers across four segments. AMD outsources all... Read more

$342.90+2.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#8 of 45 Semiconductors
Stop $313.51Target $345.93(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$300.54-12.4%46 analysts
$345.93our TP
$342.90price
$300.54mean
$225
$455

Sell if holding. At $342.90, A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of customers. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC
Concentration risk — Customer: small number of customers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)129.7
P/E (Fwd)30.5
Mkt Cap$549.6B
EV/EBITDA80.5
Profit Mgn12.5%
ROE7.1%
Rev Growth34.1%
Beta1.96
DividendNone
Rating analysts59

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV91%elevated
Max Pain$40-88.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierTSMC
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) for the production of all wafers for microprocessor and GPU products at 7 nanometer (nm) or smaller nodes'
  • HIGHCustomersmall number of customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a small number of customers for a substantial portion of our business and we expect that a small number of customers will continue to account for a significant part of our revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    AMD Compensation Committee approved fiscal 2025 EIP cash bonuses: CEO Lisa Su ($3,125,430), CFO Jean Hu ($1,179,750), CTO Mark Papermaster ($1,293,187), and others. A CEO Value Creation Equity Award also approved. No departures or appointments.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Forward Pe
3.9
Peg Ratio
7.0
Forward P/E: 30.5xPEG: 1.00Expensive valuation
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
82 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $200.62Resistance $352.99

Price Targets

$314
$346
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $342.90, A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of customers. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $313.51. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $345.93 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $313.51. Stop-loss: $313.51.

What are the risks of investing in AMD?

Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of customers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AMD overvalued or undervalued?

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. trades at a P/E of 129.7 (forward 30.5). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMD?

59 analysts cover AMD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $301.

What does Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. do?AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and AI accelerators for data center, client, gaming, and embedded markets globally, with...

AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and AI accelerators for data center, client, gaming, and embedded markets globally, with no internal fabrication capacity. Revenue comes from selling semiconductors to cloud, enterprise, and OEM customers across four segments. AMD outsources all wafer production to third-party foundries, primarily TSMC for sub-7nm nodes.

Related stocks: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.)