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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $356.90. At $396.64 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $356.90 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Near 52-week high (5.0% away).

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It... Read more

$396.64+11.5% A.UpsideScore 7.3/10#1 of 45 Semiconductors
Entry $356.90(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $331.06Target $417.11(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.4:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$463.45+16.8%18 analysts
$417.11our TP
$396.64price
$463.45mean
$351
$600

Wait for pullback to $356.90. At $396.64 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $356.90 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Near 52-week high (5.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.4x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong overall score: 7.3/10
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.9%
Near 52-week high (5.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.7
P/E (Fwd)20.4
Mkt Cap$2.04T
EV/EBITDA2.8
Profit Mgn46.5%
ROE36.2%
Rev Growth35.1%
Beta1.25
Dividend0.89%
Rating analysts43

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.99neutral
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$235-40.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $326.80Resistance $414.50

Price Targets

$331
$357
$417
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R0.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.2%
Max %2.4%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! R/R 0.4x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $356.90. At $396.64 the A.R:R is 0.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $356.90 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Near 52-week high (5.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.4x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $417.11 (+5.2%), stop $331.06 (−19.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $417.11 (+11.5% upside). Target $417.11 (+5.2%), stop $331.06 (−19.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $331.06.

What are the risks of investing in TSM?

Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Near 52-week high (5.0% away).

Is TSM overvalued or undervalued?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur trades at a P/E of 33.7 (forward 20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TSM?

43 analysts cover TSM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $463.

What does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur do?Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

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