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TSMTaiwan Semiconductor ManufacturBuy Wait6.7·$452.00+4.11%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The company delivers 35% annual revenue growth against a 47% margin structure and a wide economic moat at a PEG of 1.29, with four consecutive earnings beats reinforcing execution discipline. The 2.4-to-1 risk/reward is favorable, though weak momentum and free cash flow converting at only 38% of net income justify a small initial position pending a technical breakout.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Growth TrajectoryStable
  • Franchise Quality And MoatStable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $372.75. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $452.00. Engine's entry $372.75 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It... Read more

$452.00+11.7% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#3 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield31.94%
IncomeYield0.88%(5y avg 1.56%)Payout27.93%sustainable
Entry $372.75(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $326.40Target $469.42(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$490.34+8.5%18 analysts
$469.42our TP
$452.00price
$490.34mean
$354
$700

Wait for pullback to $372.75. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $452.00. Engine's entry $372.75 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.37, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 16, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.7
P/E (Fwd)21.4
Mkt Cap$2.25T
EV/EBITDA5.5
Profit Mgn46.5%
ROE36.2%
Rev Growth35.1%
Beta1.25
Dividend0.88%
Rating analysts42

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$210-53.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $404.77Resistance $479.00

Price Targets

$326
$373
$469
A.Upside+3.9%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.3%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.3% upside)
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $372.75. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $452.00. Engine's entry $372.75 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.37, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $469.42 (+3.9%), stop $326.40 (−38.5%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $469.42 (+11.7% upside). Target $469.42 (+3.9%), stop $326.40 (−38.5%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $326.40.

What are the risks of investing in TSM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is TSM overvalued or undervalued?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur trades at a P/E of 37.7 (forward 21.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TSM?

42 analysts cover TSM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $490.

What does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur do?Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

Related stocks: NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) · TXN (Texas Instruments Incorporated)
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