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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $382.23. At $397.37 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $382.23 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.8%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It... Read more

$397.37+9.8% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#1 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield35.32%
IncomeYield0.97%(5y avg 1.59%)Payout27.93%sustainable
Entry $382.23(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $351.74Target $421.06(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1Setup A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$467.84+17.7%18 analysts
$421.06our TP
$397.37price
$467.84mean
$354
$600

Wait for pullback to $382.23. At $397.37 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $382.23 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.8%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.23, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.8%
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.8
P/E (Fwd)20.1
Mkt Cap$2.04T
EV/EBITDA2.8
Profit Mgn46.5%
ROE36.2%
Rev Growth35.1%
Beta1.26
Dividend0.97%
Rating analysts43

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$280-29.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $375.81Resistance $421.97

Price Targets

$352
$382
$421
A.Upside+6.0%
A.R:R0.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.7%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $382.23. At $397.37 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $382.23 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 5.8%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.23, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $421.06 (+6.0%), stop $351.74 (−13.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $421.06 (+9.8% upside). Target $421.06 (+6.0%), stop $351.74 (−13.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $351.74.

What are the risks of investing in TSM?

Thin upside margin: 5.8%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Is TSM overvalued or undervalued?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur trades at a P/E of 33.8 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TSM?

43 analysts cover TSM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $468.

What does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur do?Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

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