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Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $441.71. BUY gates pass at $521.97, but semi cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.1× (below 10) + fwd/trail 0.21× (below 0.30). EPS just expanded off a trough — likely peak cyclical earnings. and concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan DRAM fabrication argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $441.71 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Micron designs and manufactures DRAM, NAND, and NOR memory and storage products across four segments (CMBU, CDBU, MCBU, AEBU) for data center, mobile, automotive, and consumer markets globally. Revenue comes from component, module, and SSD sales, with ~80% shipped to locations... Read more

$521.97+17.9% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#2 of 45 Semiconductors
Entry $441.71(R/R-minimum solve)Stop $410.79Target $520.73(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$551.40+5.6%42 analysts
$520.73our TP
$521.97price
$551.40mean
$249
$1000

Wait for pullback to $441.71. BUY gates pass at $521.97, but semi cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.1× (below 10) + fwd/trail 0.21× (below 0.30). EPS just expanded off a trough — likely peak cyclical earnings. and concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan DRAM fabrication argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $441.71 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.29, quality 8.2/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and cycle peak fwd=5.1x,ratio=0.21x. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
High-quality business
Risks
Semi cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.1× (below 10) + fwd/trail 0.21× (below 0.30). EPS just expanded off a trough — likely peak cyclical earnings.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan DRAM fabrication
Concentration risk — Geographic: ~80% revenue outside United States (80.0%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.4
P/E (Fwd)5.1
Mkt Cap$584.7B
EV/EBITDA15.8
Profit Mgn41.5%
ROE39.8%
Rev Growth196.3%
Beta1.61
Dividend0.12%
Rating analysts52

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.98neutral
IV92%elevated
Max Pain$115-78.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTaiwan DRAM fabrication
    10-K Item 1A: 'A majority of our DRAM production output in 2025 was from our fabrication facilities in Taiwan, and any loss of output could have a material adverse effect on us.'
  • HIGHGeographic~80% revenue outside United States80%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 80% of our revenue in 2025 was from products shipped to customer locations outside the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.7
Bollinger
1.3
Gap
4.0
52w Position
9.5
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVECYCLE PEAK fwd=5.1x,ratio=0.21xMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
76 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $340.20Resistance $531.36

Price Targets

$411
$442
$521
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R-0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=5.1x,ratio=0.21x

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-24 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MU stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $441.71. BUY gates pass at $521.97, but semi cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.1× (below 10) + fwd/trail 0.21× (below 0.30). EPS just expanded off a trough — likely peak cyclical earnings. and concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan DRAM fabrication argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $441.71 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.29, quality 8.2/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $520.73 (-0.2%), stop $410.79 (−27.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $520.73 (+17.9% upside). Target $520.73 (-0.2%), stop $410.79 (−27.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $410.79.

What are the risks of investing in MU?

Semi cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.1× (below 10) + fwd/trail 0.21× (below 0.30). EPS just expanded off a trough — likely peak cyclical earnings.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Taiwan DRAM fabrication; Concentration risk — Geographic: ~80% revenue outside United States (80.0%).

Is MU overvalued or undervalued?

Micron Technology, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.4 (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MU?

52 analysts cover MU with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $551.

What does Micron Technology, Inc. do?Micron designs and manufactures DRAM, NAND, and NOR memory and storage products across four segments (CMBU, CDBU, MCBU,...

Micron designs and manufactures DRAM, NAND, and NOR memory and storage products across four segments (CMBU, CDBU, MCBU, AEBU) for data center, mobile, automotive, and consumer markets globally. Revenue comes from component, module, and SSD sales, with ~80% shipped to locations outside the US in 2025. Taiwan is the primary DRAM fabrication hub.

Related stocks: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) · AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.)