Value
3.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 31.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.46
AMD · Why this verdict
Why Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AMD has 45% YoY growth, a perfect four-quarter beat streak, a wide moat and a perfect Piotroski score, offset by a 25.5x forward P/E, high volatility, and dependence on TSMC as its supplier.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is strong at 45% YoY, with margins of 17%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY and margins stay above 15% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 45% growth rate on a large base is hard to sustain, and ROE scores only 4.0/10, so returns on capital are still modest. | ||
Earnings beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters, averaging an 8.0% surprise, with the latest EPS of 2.09 against 1.95 expected. Last 4 quarters | EPS keeps beating estimates at the February 2027 report and after. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates have risen from 1.32 to 1.95 across four quarters, so the bar keeps rising and a single miss could hit a richly valued stock. | ||
Supply is concentrated: TSMC is the key supplier, so production depends on one foundry partner. Bear case | Supply from TSMC stays sufficient with no disruption to product shipments. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA long-standing foundry partnership with committed capacity may be stable, but a capacity shortfall or geopolitical event would hit shipments broadly. | ||
Valuation is not cheap at a 25.5x forward P/E and a PEG of 0.40, with the price 35.2% below the analyst target of $606.99. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E holds below 30x as earnings grow into the price. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeta of 2.54 and implied volatility of 95% show the market prices large swings, and a 35.2% gap to a haircut target may overstate the realistic upside. | ||
The shares sit above the 200-day average with rising OBV after a pullback (RSI 39), while institutions are accumulating. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum stays at or above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA MACD score of 0 and a put/call ratio of 1.35 show short-term bearish pressure that could break the 200-day support. | ||
Growth is strong at 45% YoY, with margins of 17%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY and margins stay above 15% over 12 months.
CounterA 45% growth rate on a large base is hard to sustain, and ROE scores only 4.0/10, so returns on capital are still modest.
Earnings beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters, averaging an 8.0% surprise, with the latest EPS of 2.09 against 1.95 expected.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS keeps beating estimates at the February 2027 report and after.
CounterEstimates have risen from 1.32 to 1.95 across four quarters, so the bar keeps rising and a single miss could hit a richly valued stock.
Supply is concentrated: TSMC is the key supplier, so production depends on one foundry partner.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Supply from TSMC stays sufficient with no disruption to product shipments.
CounterA long-standing foundry partnership with committed capacity may be stable, but a capacity shortfall or geopolitical event would hit shipments broadly.
Valuation is not cheap at a 25.5x forward P/E and a PEG of 0.40, with the price 35.2% below the analyst target of $606.99.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E holds below 30x as earnings grow into the price.
CounterBeta of 2.54 and implied volatility of 95% show the market prices large swings, and a 35.2% gap to a haircut target may overstate the realistic upside.
The shares sit above the 200-day average with rising OBV after a pullback (RSI 39), while institutions are accumulating.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum stays at or above 5.5.
CounterA MACD score of 0 and a put/call ratio of 1.35 show short-term bearish pressure that could break the 200-day support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 7.1 |
| Net margin | 8.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 45% YoY
Momentum
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $105,465,783 (0.012% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.8 |
| implied vol | 0.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 1.5 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Above max pain $40
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:8.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:82d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
0.22
Upside
+3.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.54>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.4>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 8.4, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Value at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Wide Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 45%.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Tsmc Supplier Concentration
Trip ifTSMC-sourced share of supply crosses 95% from the current dependence on a single foundry.
- P4Rich Forward Valuation Vs Target
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 35x from the current 25.5x.
- P5Uptrend Pullback Accumulation
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 5.9.