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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-20). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $217.01. At $224.00 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $217.01 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 7.3): -1.5.

NVIDIA designs accelerated computing platforms — GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, networking, and the CUDA software stack — used by every major cloud provider and AI model maker, reporting results in Compute & Networking and Graphics segments. The company runs a fabless model with wafers from... Read more

$224.00+17.6% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#2 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.09%
IncomeYield0.02%(5y avg 0.05%)Payout0.82%sustainable
Entry $217.01(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $200.83Target $253.28(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.0:1Setup A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$275.31+22.9%57 analysts
$253.28our TP
$224.00price
$275.31mean
$140
$380

Wait for pullback to $217.01. At $224.00 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $217.01 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 7.3): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

About NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA Corporation generated more than $130 billion in revenue during fiscal year 2026, anchored by its Data Center accelerated computing platform and supported by Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments. The Santa Clara-based company has invested over $76.7 billion in research and development since inception and employs 29,600 people, with more than half of its engineers focused on software for the CUDA platform.

NVIDIA reports results in two segments — Compute & Networking and Graphics — and earns revenue primarily through hardware sales of GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, networking adapters, and rack-scale systems, complemented by paid licenses for NVIDIA AI Enterprise and NVIDIA vGPU software. The company runs a fabless manufacturing model, contracting wafer fabrication to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Samsung Electronics, sourcing memory from SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung, and engaging Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron, and Fabrinet for assembly, testing, and packaging. Customers include all major cloud service providers, AI model makers, enterprises, and public sector entities, served through OEMs, ODMs, system integrators, and distributors. NVIDIA names Advanced Micro Devices, Huawei Technologies, and Intel as principal competitors in GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, and accelerated computing processors. The Blackwell architecture scaled in fiscal year 2026, while the company unveiled the Rubin platform with shipments targeted for the second half of fiscal year 2027.

Show full overview

The fabless model concentrates risk in a small number of foundries and packaging partners, with the 10-K noting a limited number and geographic concentration of global suppliers, foundries, contract manufacturers, assembly and test providers, and memory manufacturers — a supply chain mainly concentrated in Asia. Long manufacturing lead times have exceeded 12 months in past shortage periods, requiring non-cancellable orders, premium payments, and deposits to secure future capacity. In May 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K the appointment of a new Chief Accounting Officer recruited from Intel Corporation, formalizing a finance-leadership transition effective May 4.

See also: Technology · Semiconductors

From NVIDIA Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted May 16, 2026.

Recent Developments — NVIDIA Corporation

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 27, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: VP and Chief Accounting Officer Donald Robertson notified intent to retire as CAO effective May 4, 2026, remaining as VP Finance until July 1, 2026. Scott Gawel, age 55, appointed VP and CAO effective May 4, 2026, joining from Intel Corporation where he served as Corporate VP and CAO since 2022.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.8 in RISK_OFF)
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 7.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.0
P/E (Fwd)19.0
Mkt Cap$5.34T
EV/EBITDA39.9
Profit Mgn55.6%
ROE101.5%
Rev Growth73.2%
Beta2.24
Dividend0.02%
Rating analysts71

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.12bearish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$50-77.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierTSMC and Samsung foundries
    10-K Item 1: 'We utilize foundries, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, or TSMC, and Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., or Samsung, to produce our semiconductor wafers.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicsupply chain concentrated in Asia
    10-K Item 1: 'While currently our supply chain is mainly concentrated in Asia, we are expanding into the U.S. and Latin America.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of partners and distributors
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant amount of our revenue stems from a limited number of partners and distributors and we have a concentration of sales to customers'
  • MEDIUMSupplierlimited foundries, contract manufacturers, and memory manufacturers
    10-K Item 1A: 'limited number and geographic concentration of global suppliers, foundries, contract manufacturers, assembly and test providers and memory manufacturers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed Suzanne Nora Johnson as a director and Audit Committee member effective July 13, 2026, expanding the Board from ten to eleven members. Initial RSU grant target value $255,000 plus pro-rated annual equity and $85,000 annualized cash retainer.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    VP and Chief Accounting Officer Donald Robertson notified intent to retire as CAO effective May 4, 2026, remaining as VP Finance until July 1, 2026. Scott Gawel, age 55, appointed VP and CAO effective May 4, 2026, joining from Intel Corporation where he served as Corporate VP and CAO since 2022.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee adopted the Fiscal Year 2027 Variable Compensation Plan on March 2, 2026, setting performance goals tied to fiscal year 2027 revenue with threshold, base, and stretch plan levels for named executive officers.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $194.74Resistance $236.54

Price Targets

$201
$217
$253
A.Upside+13.1%
A.R:R1.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-20 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVDA stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $217.01. At $224.00 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $217.01 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 7.3): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $253.28 (+13.1%), stop $200.83 (−11.5%), Setup A.R:R 2.5:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NVDA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $253.28 (+17.6% upside). Target $253.28 (+13.1%), stop $200.83 (−11.5%), Setup A.R:R 2.5:1. Stop-loss: $200.83.

What are the risks of investing in NVDA?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 7.3): -1.5.

Is NVDA overvalued or undervalued?

NVIDIA Corporation trades at a P/E of 45.0 (forward 19.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NVDA?

71 analysts cover NVDA with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $275.

What does NVIDIA Corporation do?NVIDIA designs accelerated computing platforms — GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, networking, and the CUDA software stack — used by...

NVIDIA designs accelerated computing platforms — GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, networking, and the CUDA software stack — used by every major cloud provider and AI model maker, reporting results in Compute & Networking and Graphics segments. The company runs a fabless model with wafers from TSMC and Samsung. Over 7.5 million developers use CUDA, and NVIDIA powers 78% of TOP500 supercomputers.

Related stocks: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) · INTC (Intel Corporation)