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NVDANVIDIA CorporationBuy Wait6.9·$207.55-2.31%
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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $210.70 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.6): -1.5.

NVIDIA designs accelerated computing platforms — GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, and networking — across two segments: Compute & Networking (Data Center, Automotive) and Graphics (Gaming, Professional Visualization). Revenue comes from hardware sales to cloud providers, OEMs, and enterprises... Read more

$207.55+35.1% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#4 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.90%
IncomeYield0.47%(5y avg 0.05%)Payout0.61%sustainable
Entry $210.70(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $193.98Target $275.02(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$298.93+44.0%59 analysts
$275.02our TP
$207.55price
$298.93mean
$500

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $210.70 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.6): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.65, quality 8.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About NVIDIA Corporation

About NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA's fabless GPU platform, manufactured by foundries including TSMC and Samsung, powers data center AI infrastructure across two reporting segments: Compute & Networking and Graphics. The company has invested over $76.7 billion in research and development since inception, introduced the Blackwell Ultra platform in fiscal year 2026, and counts over 7.5 million CUDA developers worldwide. NVIDIA powers over 78% of supercomputers on the global TOP500 list, including 9 of the top 10 systems on the Green500 list.

NVIDIA generates hardware revenue through sales to cloud service providers, original equipment manufacturers, AI model makers, and enterprises globally, with gaming GPUs historically stronger in the second half of the fiscal year. The fabless manufacturing model relies on TSMC and Samsung for wafer fabrication, assembly handled by subcontractors including Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron Corporation, and Fabrinet, and memory sourced from SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung. In periods of demand growth, NVIDIA places non-cancellable inventory orders with lead times exceeding 12 months and has paid premiums or provided deposits to secure foundry capacity. NVIDIA AI Enterprise, Omniverse, and NVIDIA DRIVE represent paid standalone software offerings. Named competitors in the 10-K include Advanced Micro Devices, Huawei Technologies, and Intel in GPU and accelerated computing markets. A significant amount of revenue stems from a limited number of partners and distributors, which could adversely affect results if any such customer relationship is lost.

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NVIDIA's semiconductor supply chain is mainly concentrated in Asia, with a limited number of global foundries, contract manufacturers, and assembly providers that the company depends on to manufacture and package its chips. NVIDIA relies on foundries including TSMC and Samsung for wafer fabrication; qualifying a replacement foundry would take months and may not replicate equivalent process capabilities. The company is expanding into U.S. and Latin America manufacturing to add redundancy but acknowledges it may face delays scaling domestic production. Geopolitical tensions in regions where key suppliers operate could have a material adverse impact on supply continuity.

See also: Technology · Semiconductors

From NVIDIA Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — NVIDIA Corporation

Generated 2026-06-17T09:07:23Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202671d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.6
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$5.15T
EV/EBITDA30.8
Profit Mgn63.0%
ROE114.3%
Rev Growth85.2%
Beta2.20
Dividend0.47%
Rating analysts68

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C2.81bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$430+107.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierTSMC
    10-K Item 1: 'We utilize foundries, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, or TSMC, and Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., or Samsung, to produce our semiconductor wafers.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of partners and distributors
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant amount of our revenue stems from a limited number of partners and distributors and we have a concentration of sales to customers who purchase directly or indirectly from us'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Donald Robertson, VP and CAO, notified retirement effective May 4, 2026; will remain as VP Finance through July 1, 2026. Scott Gawel (formerly Corporate VP and CAO of Intel) appointed successor VP and CAO effective May 4, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOW
    Suzanne Nora Johnson appointed to NVIDIA Board of Directors and Audit Committee, effective July 13, 2026. Board size increased from ten to eleven. Initial equity grant of RSUs with target value of $255,000; annual cash retainer of $85,000.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $199.34Resistance $232.01

Price Targets

$194
$211
$275
A.Upside+32.5%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVDA stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $210.70 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.6): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.65, quality 8.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $275.02 (+32.5%), stop $193.98 (−7.0%), Setup A.R:R 7.0:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NVDA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $275.02 (+35.1% upside). Target $275.02 (+32.5%), stop $193.98 (−7.0%), Setup A.R:R 7.0:1. Stop-loss: $193.98.

What are the risks of investing in NVDA?

Leverage penalty (D/E 6.6): -1.5.

Is NVDA overvalued or undervalued?

NVIDIA Corporation trades at a P/E of 32.6 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NVDA?

68 analysts cover NVDA with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $299.

What does NVIDIA Corporation do?NVIDIA designs accelerated computing platforms — GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, and networking — across two segments: Compute &...

NVIDIA designs accelerated computing platforms — GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, and networking — across two segments: Compute & Networking (Data Center, Automotive) and Graphics (Gaming, Professional Visualization). Revenue comes from hardware sales to cloud providers, OEMs, and enterprises through a fully outsourced fabless manufacturing model using TSMC and Samsung. The platform counts over 7.5 million CUDA developers worldwide.

Related stocks: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) · INTC (Intel Corporation)
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