Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
AMBP · Why this verdict
Why Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ardagh Metal Packaging converts earnings to cash at nearly 5x and has growing revenue, but weak quality, a negative momentum trend and a price above the analyst target limit the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality score is 4.0 with thin operating margins, which the engine treats as below-average business quality. Key risks | Quality score rises above 5.0 as margins improve. | →Stable |
| CounterPackaging is a low-margin commodity-like business with limited pricing power. | ||
Free cash flow equals about 495% of net income, a very strong cash conversion. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin is only about 0.5%, so the ratio is inflated by a tiny earnings base. | ||
Quarterly revenue rose from about $1.35B in late 2025 to $1.69B in the September 2026 quarter. Earnings | Quarterly revenue stays above $1.6B. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth may reflect pass-through of raw material costs rather than volume. | ||
The $4.50 price is above the $4.42 analyst target by about 1.9%, leaving no upside to target. Targets | Analysts raise targets or the price pulls back. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating, which could support the price. | ||
Falling on-balance volume and a momentum score of 3.5 signal distribution, and a yield trap warning flags that the high yield is unsafe. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 5.0 and the dividend is covered. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPrice is still above the 200-day average, so the trend is not broken. | ||
The quality score is 4.0 with thin operating margins, which the engine treats as below-average business quality.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 5.0 as margins improve.
CounterPackaging is a low-margin commodity-like business with limited pricing power.
Free cash flow equals about 495% of net income, a very strong cash conversion.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income over 12 months.
CounterNet margin is only about 0.5%, so the ratio is inflated by a tiny earnings base.
Quarterly revenue rose from about $1.35B in late 2025 to $1.69B in the September 2026 quarter.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $1.6B.
CounterGrowth may reflect pass-through of raw material costs rather than volume.
The $4.50 price is above the $4.42 analyst target by about 1.9%, leaving no upside to target.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets or the price pulls back.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating, which could support the price.
Falling on-balance volume and a momentum score of 3.5 signal distribution, and a yield trap warning flags that the high yield is unsafe.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 5.0 and the dividend is covered.
CounterPrice is still above the 200-day average, so the trend is not broken.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.7 |
| Net margin | 0.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 495% FCF/NI
Growth
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 5.1 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
| erm sentiment | 4.6 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 5.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:112d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.47
Upside
-3.6%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.47 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.6, Insider at 7.3, and Value at 6.8; the weakest are Quality at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.8, and Momentum at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100%.
- P2Growing Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $1.5B.
- P3Low Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from current 4.0.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 15%.
- P5Weak Momentum Yield Risk
Trip ifPrice falls below its 200-day average by more than 10%.