Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.7 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.27
- ▸Attractively valued
ALGT · Why this verdict
Why Allegiant Travel (ALGT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Allegiant Travel is an airline trading at 7.2x forward earnings, 42% off its high with 43.2% upside to the analyst target and 37% revenue growth, but quality is below the 4.0 floor, there is no competitive moat, and earnings are due in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality score is 3.5, below the 4.0 floor, with ROE and net margin components at 0.6 and 0.4 and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score recovers above 4.0 as net margin improves. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion is 749% of net income, so thin reported profit may understate actual cash generation. | ||
Forward P/E is 7.2x with a PEG of 0.26, and the $71.34 price is 43.2% below the $102.16 analyst target. Estimated upside | Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings recover. | →Stable |
| CounterAirline earnings swing widely with fuel and demand, so a low multiple can mark peak earnings, and the target may be cut after a weak quarter. | ||
Revenue grew 37% YoY, and the revenue growth component is 10.0/10, ranking the company an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is low at 0.33 because only revenue feeds the score, and capacity-driven growth in airlines can erode margins. | ||
EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including 2.19 versus 1.27 in August 2026, but the November 2025 quarter missed at -2.09 versus -1.80. Avg surprise pct | EPS surprise stays positive at the November 2026 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSeasonal swings between large profits and losses make quarterly estimates hard to hit, and the average surprise of 26.9% is skewed by one large beat. | ||
The price is below its 200-day average, which is falling 2.0% over 30 days, and implied volatility is 101% with a debt-to-equity component of only 3.8/10. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average slope turns flat and implied volatility falls below 70%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and an improving MACD indicate accumulation, so the downtrend may be ending. | ||
The quality score is 3.5, below the 4.0 floor, with ROE and net margin components at 0.6 and 0.4 and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 as net margin improves.
CounterCash conversion is 749% of net income, so thin reported profit may understate actual cash generation.
Forward P/E is 7.2x with a PEG of 0.26, and the $71.34 price is 43.2% below the $102.16 analyst target.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings recover.
CounterAirline earnings swing widely with fuel and demand, so a low multiple can mark peak earnings, and the target may be cut after a weak quarter.
Revenue grew 37% YoY, and the revenue growth component is 10.0/10, ranking the company an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is low at 0.33 because only revenue feeds the score, and capacity-driven growth in airlines can erode margins.
EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including 2.19 versus 1.27 in August 2026, but the November 2025 quarter missed at -2.09 versus -1.80.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive at the November 2026 report.
CounterSeasonal swings between large profits and losses make quarterly estimates hard to hit, and the average surprise of 26.9% is skewed by one large beat.
The price is below its 200-day average, which is falling 2.0% over 30 days, and implied volatility is 101% with a debt-to-equity component of only 3.8/10.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average slope turns flat and implied volatility falls below 70%.
CounterRising on-balance volume and an improving MACD indicate accumulation, so the downtrend may be ending.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 749% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 37% YoY
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 2.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.97
Upside
+37.2%
Downside
12.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.65>1.3, MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 1d<=7d outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.97.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.0, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Quality at 3.5, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $85, cutting upside to less than 20% from current 43.2%.
- P2Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Volatile Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarterly updates.
- P5Downtrend And Leverage
Trip ifShare price falls below the $66.35 stop level, a drop of more than 7%.