C3.ai shows declining revenue, an operating margin of -48.5%, weak quality, 28% short interest and extreme insider selling, and the stock trades 34.7% above its analyst target, so the data support no upside case.
Thesis pillars
- Declining Revenue Margin Compression↓Deteriorating
- Weak Quality No Moat→Stable
- Price Far Above Analyst Target→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jun 24, 2026
C3.ai, Inc. (AI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.96: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
C3.ai is an enterprise AI application software company that sells its C3 Agentic AI Platform, pre-built industry-specific C3 AI Applications, and C3 Generative AI tools across manufacturing, oil and gas, utilities, defense and government sectors, distributing largely through... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.96: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 3/7 gates (earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — C3.ai, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Executive Departure: David Vanuch Leaves C3.ai — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS C3.ai in Reported Merger Talks with Automation Anywhere — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Increases Air Liquide Price Target to €204 — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Analysts Adjust Price Targets for Air Liquide Following Q3 Results — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Air Liquide Reports Q3 2026 Financial Results and Strategic Expansion — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T12:04:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductC3 AI Software subscriptions and Center of Excellence support services10-K Item 1A: 'we derive substantially all of our revenue from subscriptions to our C3 AI Software and Center of Excellence support services'
- MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of large customers10-K Item 1A: 'Historically, a limited number of customers have accounted for a substantial portion of our revenue.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Federal government10-K Item 1: 'The U.S. Federal government, including defense, intelligence community, and civilian agency customers, has emerged as a significant and growing segment of our business.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02MEDIUMBoard unanimously appointed founder Thomas M. Siebel as CEO and Chairman effective May 8, 2026; Stephen Ehikian, CEO since September 2025, moved to President. Clean internal handoff, no disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-06-16Item 5.02LOWDirector Jim H. Snabe took an immediate leave of absence from the Board (and as special advisor to the CEO) to serve as Special Envoy to the European Commission for Industrial AI; he will not stand for re-election, and the Board shrank from twelve to eleven members.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
7 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -25.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -192.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.96: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 28%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $11.12. Score 3.1/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $7.74 reached (−35.3% from $11.96); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $11.12. Stop-loss: $11.12.
Concentration risk — Product: C3 AI Software subscriptions and Center of Excellence support services; Target reached (-35.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).
C3.ai, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -25.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts rate AI, with a consensus score of 2.4/5. 10 analysts publish price targets averaging $9.
What does C3.ai, Inc. do?C3.ai is an enterprise AI application software company that sells its C3 Agentic AI Platform, pre-built...
C3.ai is an enterprise AI application software company that sells its C3 Agentic AI Platform, pre-built industry-specific C3 AI Applications, and C3 Generative AI tools across manufacturing, oil and gas, utilities, defense and government sectors, distributing largely through partners including Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud and McKinsey. The company derives substantially all revenue from software subscriptions and Center of Excellence support services, has historically depended on a limited number of large customers for a substantial portion of revenue, and reported a $470.4 million net loss for