Value
3.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
AI · Why this verdict
Why C3.ai (AI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
C3.ai shows declining revenue, an operating margin of -48.5%, weak quality, 28% short interest and extreme insider selling, and the stock trades 34.7% above its analyst target, so the data support no upside case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining 26% and the operating margin is -48.5%, a sign of margin compression in a value-trap pattern. Warnings | Revenue growth turns positive and operating margin improves above -30%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIf AI-software demand returns, operating leverage could reverse losses quickly, but the data show the opposite so far. | ||
Quality of 2.6 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | Quality rises above 4.0 as losses narrow. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business depends on a narrow product line of C3 AI Software subscriptions and support services, so fundamentals may not recover. | ||
At $11.85 the stock is 34.7% above the $7.74 analyst target, leaving a reward-to-risk of -2.99 against 11.6% downside. Estimated upside | Analyst targets are raised above $11 or the price converges toward $7.74. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag in sentiment-driven rallies, and a recent analyst-related news boost could prompt upward revisions. | ||
Insiders sold about $17.1M, equal to 0.898% of market cap, which scores as heavy selling. Insider breakdown | Insider selling slows below 0.3% of market cap. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling is partly offset by institutions accumulating, which could indicate that large holders see value. | ||
C3.ai beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with losses narrowing to -$0.20 per share in September 2026. Last 4 quarters | Quarterly loss per share narrows below -$0.15 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats against low loss estimates do not fix a shrinking revenue base, and the February 2026 quarter missed by 38.3%. | ||
Revenue is declining 26% and the operating margin is -48.5%, a sign of margin compression in a value-trap pattern.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and operating margin improves above -30%.
CounterIf AI-software demand returns, operating leverage could reverse losses quickly, but the data show the opposite so far.
Quality of 2.6 is below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality rises above 4.0 as losses narrow.
CounterThe business depends on a narrow product line of C3 AI Software subscriptions and support services, so fundamentals may not recover.
At $11.85 the stock is 34.7% above the $7.74 analyst target, leaving a reward-to-risk of -2.99 against 11.6% downside.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $11 or the price converges toward $7.74.
CounterAnalyst targets lag in sentiment-driven rallies, and a recent analyst-related news boost could prompt upward revisions.
Insiders sold about $17.1M, equal to 0.898% of market cap, which scores as heavy selling.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows below 0.3% of market cap.
CounterSelling is partly offset by institutions accumulating, which could indicate that large holders see value.
C3.ai beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with losses narrowing to -$0.20 per share in September 2026.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly loss per share narrows below -$0.15 over the next 12 months.
CounterBeats against low loss estimates do not fix a shrinking revenue base, and the February 2026 quarter missed by 38.3%.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -26%
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 4.2 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 1.9 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $15,576,112 (0.829% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 0.2 |
| growth rank | 0.1 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.7 |
| days to cover | 1.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.9 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 28%
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Above max pain $4
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.0=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.83%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.03
Upside
-33.8%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.7<4.5 outcome against Catalyst at 5.4 and asymmetric R:R of -3.03.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 5.4, Insider at 5.2, and Technical at 4.8; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Peer rank at 2.5, and Quality at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Far Above Analyst Target
Trip ifThe price premium to the analyst target stays above 25% two quarters from now.
- P2Declining Revenue Margin Compression
Trip ifRevenue decline widens to more than 35% YoY from the current 26%.
- P3Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 2 from the current 3.
- P4Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 2% of market cap over 90 days.
- P5Earnings Losses Narrowing
Trip ifQuarterly loss per share exceeds -$0.35 from the recent -$0.20.