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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance through subsidiaries, protecting debt holders against non-payment of scheduled principal and interest in U.S. and non-U.S. public finance and structured finance markets. Revenue comes from premiums, investment income,... Read more

$77.75+0.9% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#10 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield5.37%
IncomeYield1.95%(5y avg 1.61%)Payout16.04%sustainable
Stop $72.89Target $78.48(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$92.33+18.8%3 analysts
$78.48our TP
$77.75price
$92.33mean
$103

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.6Qual5.4Grw0.5Mom4.0Sent6.2Ins3.0Peer2.8Tech6.1Risk5.54.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Weak overall score: 4.5/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.9
P/E (Fwd)10.1
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn51.0%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth-6.2%
Beta0.81
Dividend1.95%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C5.14bearish
IV34%normal
Max Pain$55-29.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -6.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.0
Declining revenue: -6%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.5
Value Rank
3.5
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $73.81Resistance $83.78

Price Targets

$73
$78
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.9% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $78.48 (+0.9%), stop $72.89 (−6.7%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $78.48 (+0.9% upside). Target $78.48 (+0.9%), stop $72.89 (−6.7%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $72.89.

What are the risks of investing in AGO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Weak overall score: 4.5/10.

Is AGO overvalued or undervalued?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. trades at a P/E of 8.9 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AGO?

7 analysts cover AGO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Assured Guaranty Ltd. do?Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance through subsidiaries, protecting debt holders against...

Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance through subsidiaries, protecting debt holders against non-payment of scheduled principal and interest in U.S. and non-U.S. public finance and structured finance markets. Revenue comes from premiums, investment income, and asset management through its Sound Point Capital Management ownership. The company recently acquired Assured Life Re for annuity reinsurance.

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