Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the AGO stock price target?

Take-profit $89.89 (+9.2% upside). Prior stop was $79.16.

Q: What are the risks of investing in AGO?

Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Weak overall score: 4.6/10; Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum; Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA.

Q: Is AGO overvalued or undervalued?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. trades at a P/E of 8.0 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about AGO?

7 analysts cover AGO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $106.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $82.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Assured Guaranty is a Bermuda-based holding company providing financial guaranty insurance for U.S. and non-U.S. public finance and structured finance obligations, protecting holders of debt instruments against payment defaults. Revenue comes from insurance premiums, investment... Read more

$82.19+9.2% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#10 of 10 Insurance - Specialty

Stop $79.16Target $89.89(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.9:1

Analyst target$105.75+28.7%4 analysts

$89.89our TP

$82.19price

$105.75mean

$116

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Attractive valuation

Margin of safety: 47%

Risks

Thin upside margin: 9.2%

Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Weak overall score: 4.6/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.0

P/E (Fwd)10.2

Mkt Cap$3.7B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn60.5%

ROE9.6%

Rev Growth-37.4%

Beta0.93

Dividend1.86%

Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.40bearish

IV44%normal

Max Pain$70-14.8% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-19Item 5.02MEDIUM
Stephen Donnarumma, Chief Credit Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd., notified retirement effective September 30, 2026. Will continue as senior advisor to CEO from October 1, 2026 to April 2, 2027. Joined Company in 1993; served as Chief Credit Officer since 2007. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.415%1.26

Quality5.415%0.81

Growth0.015%0.00

Momentum2.210%0.22

Sentiment6.110%0.61

Insider Activity3.310%0.33

Peer Rank3.910%0.39

Technical Setup6.85%0.34

Risk Profile5.75%0.29

Catalyst7.35%0.36

Overall (Σ contributions)4.61

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -37.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

0.0

Declining revenue: -37%

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

2.0

Macd

3.7

Rsi

4.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.0

Quality Rank

4.5

Value Rank

6.0

GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

52 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $80.17Resistance $85.58

Price Targets

$79

$90

A.Upside+9.4%

A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AGO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $82.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $79.16. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $89.89 (+9.2% upside). Prior stop was $79.16. Stop-loss: $79.16.

What are the risks of investing in AGO?

Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Weak overall score: 4.6/10.

Is AGO overvalued or undervalued?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. trades at a P/E of 8.0 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGO?

7 analysts cover AGO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $106.

What does Assured Guaranty Ltd. do?Assured Guaranty is a Bermuda-based holding company providing financial guaranty insurance for U.S. and non-U.S. public...