Value
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸Attractively valued
AGO · Why this verdict
Why Assured Guaranty (AGO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Assured Guaranty has beaten estimates in 3 of 4 quarters at a 10.0x forward P/E with 43% margins, but weak cash conversion, a confirmed downtrend, thin 9.7% upside and an earnings report in 4 days limit conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings quality is a red flag with FCF at only 4% of net income, no competitive moat and a failed Rule of 40 score of 1. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion improves above 30%. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurance cash flows are lumpy and the low conversion could persist, which casts doubt on the earnings. | ||
Assured Guaranty beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a 36.5% average surprise, and earnings estimates are trending up. Avg surprise pct | The 2026-11-05 report returns to a beat after the August miss. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent quarter missed by 23.2%, and the average is inflated by three large beats that may reflect lumpy gains. | ||
Forward P/E of 10.0x and strong 43% margins make the shares attractively valued with 29% analyst upside. Valuation breakdown | The multiple holds near 10x while margins stay above 40%. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple is partly deserved because revenue is flat and the business has no competitive moat. | ||
Price is below a 200-day average falling 3.5% per 30 days, and the $77.35 analyst target offers only 9.7% upside versus 5.0% downside from $70.48. Estimated upside | Price reclaims the 200-day average and the analyst target rises above $80. | →Stable |
| CounterA confirmed downtrend with falling on-balance volume and thin upside gives little reason to buy before earnings. | ||
Earnings in 4 days add event risk, and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap with a safety score of 5.8. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained through the next reporting cycle. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA miss like August's 23.2% shortfall ahead of weak technicals could deepen the decline. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag with FCF at only 4% of net income, no competitive moat and a failed Rule of 40 score of 1.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion improves above 30%.
CounterInsurance cash flows are lumpy and the low conversion could persist, which casts doubt on the earnings.
Assured Guaranty beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a 36.5% average surprise, and earnings estimates are trending up.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- The 2026-11-05 report returns to a beat after the August miss.
CounterThe most recent quarter missed by 23.2%, and the average is inflated by three large beats that may reflect lumpy gains.
Forward P/E of 10.0x and strong 43% margins make the shares attractively valued with 29% analyst upside.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The multiple holds near 10x while margins stay above 40%.
CounterA low multiple is partly deserved because revenue is flat and the business has no competitive moat.
Price is below a 200-day average falling 3.5% per 30 days, and the $77.35 analyst target offers only 9.7% upside versus 5.0% downside from $70.48.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and the analyst target rises above $80.
CounterA confirmed downtrend with falling on-balance volume and thin upside gives little reason to buy before earnings.
Earnings in 4 days add event risk, and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap with a safety score of 5.8.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained through the next reporting cycle.
CounterA miss like August's 23.2% shortfall ahead of weak technicals could deepen the decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.3 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 43%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 4% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 1 (fail)
Growth
1.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.4 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.70
Upside
+8.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.70 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, and Momentum at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.2, Peer rank at 2.7, and Technical at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.70 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation High Margins
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x without an increase in earnings estimates.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion No Moat
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 0% from the current 4%.
- P4Downtrend Thin Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $67.72 stop-loss level.
- P5Earnings Event Risk Yield Warning
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below $1.00 from the recent $1.23.