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Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5.

Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states), with ~$248.4B of mortgage insurance in force and ~$46.6B of new insurance written in 2025, plus reinsurance through Bermuda-based Essent Re. Revenue comes from insurance... Read more

$62.07+2.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield10.55%
IncomeYield2.32%(5y avg 1.89%)Payout18.21%sustainable
Stop $58.69Target $63.90(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$69.14+11.4%7 analysts
$63.90our TP
$62.07price
$69.14mean
$75

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-3.1% upside). Wait for pullback. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Essent Group Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.6 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.6
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn53.6%
ROE12.1%
Rev Growth5.8%
Beta0.81
Dividend2.32%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.5
Revenue Growth
3.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.0
Value Rank
3.5
Quality Rank
4.0
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $59.28Resistance $65.20

Price Targets

$59
$64
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-07 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESNT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-3.1% upside). Wait for pullback. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $63.90 (+2.9%), stop $58.69 (−5.8%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ESNT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.90 (+2.9% upside). Target $63.90 (+2.9%), stop $58.69 (−5.8%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $58.69.

What are the risks of investing in ESNT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ESNT overvalued or undervalued?

Essent Group Ltd. trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ESNT?

13 analysts cover ESNT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $69.

What does Essent Group Ltd. do?Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states), with ~$248.4B of...

Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states), with ~$248.4B of mortgage insurance in force and ~$46.6B of new insurance written in 2025, plus reinsurance through Bermuda-based Essent Re. Revenue comes from insurance premiums on residential first-lien mortgages, with top-10 lending customers generating 59.3% of new insurance written in 2025.

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