Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $59.62 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5.
Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states), with ~$248.4B of mortgage insurance in force and ~$46.6B of new insurance written in 2025, plus reinsurance through Bermuda-based Essent Re. Revenue comes from insurance... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $59.62 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Essent Group Ltd.
About Essent Group Ltd.
Essent Group insured $248.4 billion of U.S. residential mortgage risk in force at December 31, 2025, generating $46.6 billion of new insurance written during the year at an estimated private mortgage insurance penetration of roughly 15% of total U.S. origination volume. Essent Guaranty, the principal subsidiary, is a Pennsylvania-domiciled monoline mortgage guaranty insurer approved by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and licensed in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Bermuda-based Essent Re entered the Lloyd's of London market beginning in the first quarter of 2026, expanding into property and casualty reinsurance.
Essent earns revenue from risk-based monthly premiums on policies that persist as long as the underlying loan-to-value ratio remains above GSE cancellation thresholds — the annual persistency rate was 85.7% at December 31, 2025. Premiums are set at origination on a spectrum of risk variables including credit score, LTV, and coverage percentage and cannot be renegotiated after issuance, creating a fixed revenue profile per cohort. The top ten lending customers generated 59.3% of NIW in 2025, a concentration that rose from 39.9% in 2023; one customer exceeded 10% of consolidated revenues. The portfolio was 97.2% fixed-rate 30-year mortgages and 41.9% FICO ≥760 by IIF at year-end, reflecting credit quality of the post-2020 origination cohorts. Essent competes with five other GSE-approved private mortgage insurers on pricing, underwriting guidelines, and service.
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Essent's top-10 lender concentration rose from 39.9% of NIW in 2023 to 59.3% in 2025, with master policies permitting customers to cancel coverage on any insured loan at any time without penalty. The U.S. residential mortgage origination market totaled $2.05 trillion in 2025 — still constrained by elevated interest rates and high housing prices — and if volumes contract further, competition among private mortgage insurers for remaining NIW could accelerate customer consolidation, which the 10-K identifies as a material risk to revenues.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
From Essent Group Ltd.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Essent Group Ltd.
Latest news
- NEWS Essent Group Ltd. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $68, Implies 13% Upside - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS ESNT Q1 Deep Dive: Mortgage Insurance Growth Amid Housing Market Pause, Capital Deployment Shifts - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Property & Casualty Insurance Stocks Q1 Results: Benchmarking Essent Group (NYSE:ESNT) - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Essent Group (NYSE:ESNT) SVP Sells $276,292.50 in Stock - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Insider Selling: Essent Group (NYSE:ESNT) CEO Sells 13,064 Shares of Stock - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-06-17T08:31:51Z.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $59.62 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $57.04. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $60.50 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $57.04. Stop-loss: $57.04.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 8.7): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Essent Group Ltd. trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover ESNT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $68.
What does Essent Group Ltd. do?Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states), with ~$248.4B of...
Essent Group provides private mortgage insurance through Essent Guaranty (licensed in all 50 states), with ~$248.4B of mortgage insurance in force and ~$46.6B of new insurance written in 2025, plus reinsurance through Bermuda-based Essent Re. Revenue comes from insurance premiums on residential first-lien mortgages, with top-10 lending customers generating 59.3% of new insurance written in 2025.