agilon health shows a recent earnings beat and rising analyst estimates, but quality sits well below the exit threshold, both the momentum and asymmetry gates have failed deeply, and declining revenue with heavy margin compression argue strongly for staying out.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor Cash Burn→Stable
- Declining Revenue Margin Compression→Stable
- Deeply Negative Asymmetry Momentum Failed→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
agilon health, inc. (AGL) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $111.01: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
agilon health partners with community-based primary care physician groups to build Medicare Advantage-focused, globally capitated risk-bearing entities across 30 U.S. geographies, sharing savings from improved quality and cost management with its 28 anchor physician groups under... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $111.01: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About agilon health, inc.
About agilon health, inc.
agilon health operates a Medicare-centric, globally capitated value-based care platform spanning 28 anchor physician groups across 30 U.S. geographies, serving approximately 511,000 Medicare Advantage members and 114,000 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries through nine CMS Accountable Care Organizations as of December 31, 2025. In November 2025, the company received a NYSE notice that its common stock price had fallen out of compliance with minimum listing standards, and it is pursuing a reverse stock split subject to stockholder approval to regain compliance.
agilon earns revenue primarily through per-member-per-month global capitation payments from Medicare Advantage payors, funneled through wholly owned risk-bearing entities that assume financial responsibility for members' total Part A and B medical costs and, in some contracts, Part D pharmacy costs. Anchor physician groups receive a fee-for-service base compensation rate plus a share of any surplus the RBE generates by improving quality and lowering medical costs, under professional service agreements that typically run 20 years with the base-compensation rate renegotiated after the first ten years. When agilon enters a new payor contract, the payor typically requires it to post risk-bearing capital, usually 1.0% to 3.0% of the contract's projected annual gross revenue, in the form of letters of credit, surety bonds or restricted deposits. Separately, agilon's nine CMS Accountable Care Organizations operate under the ACO REACH Model and MSSP, both of which face a structural transition: CMS has announced ACO REACH will terminate at the end of 2026 and be replaced by the untested LEAD Model beginning January 1, 2027.
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agilon's revenue is structurally concentrated in a small number of Medicare Advantage payor relationships in each geography, and the 10-K specifically flags reliance on a limited number of key payors as a principal risk: if a payor exits a market or a contract is not renewed, the members that payor attributes to agilon's platform can transition to a competing platform entirely outside agilon's control. That concentration compounds a government-program transition risk unique to 2026-2027: the ACO REACH Model that underpins nine of agilon's Accountable Care Organizations terminates at year-end 2026, and the replacement LEAD Model's benchmark calculations, risk-adjustment methodology and quality measures remain undefined, leaving agilon unable to predict whether continued participation will be economically viable.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From agilon health, inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -7.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -6.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $111.01: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $103.24. Score 3.4/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $123.20 (+11.0% upside). Prior stop was $103.24. Stop-loss: $103.24.
Target reached (-52.7% upside); Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0).
agilon health, inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -180.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover AGL with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $60.
What does agilon health, inc. do?agilon health partners with community-based primary care physician groups to build Medicare Advantage-focused, globally...
agilon health partners with community-based primary care physician groups to build Medicare Advantage-focused, globally capitated risk-bearing entities across 30 U.S. geographies, sharing savings from improved quality and cost management with its 28 anchor physician groups under 20-year partnership agreements. As of December 31, 2025, the platform served approximately 511,000 Medicare Advantage members and 114,000 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries through nine CMS Accountable Care Organizations, and the company received a NYSE non-compliance notice in November 2025 after its stock traded