Value
5.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
AGL · Why this verdict
Why agilon health (AGL) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality score of 1.5 sits well below the 4.0 floor cited as grounds to exit, with return on equity, return on assets, and net margin components all at zero and a weak Piotroski F-score of 3 out of 9. Quality breakdown | At least some core profitability components should move off zero and the quality score should climb toward the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months for the exit signal to reverse. | →Stable |
| CounterThe current ratio component reads a solid 4.1, suggesting near-term liquidity is not itself a pressing concern despite the weak profitability elsewhere. | ||
Revenue is declining at -7% year-over-year while the operating margin has compressed to -47.4%, cited explicitly among the value-trap signals alongside high leverage at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.9. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive and operating margin should narrow toward breakeven over the next 12 months for the declining-fundamentals concern to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst estimates have actually risen 19.5% over the past 30 days, a sentiment proxy the catalyst notes describe positively, suggesting forward expectations may be improving even as trailing figures decline. | ||
The setup failed both the momentum gate at 3.2 against a 4.5 threshold and the asymmetry gate at a deeply negative reward-to-risk ratio of -3.51, with the V8 assessment showing the price already far beyond its target. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should recover back above the 4.5 gate threshold and the reward-to-risk ratio should turn positive over the next 12 months for both failed gates to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterThe setup is instead classified as range-bound with RSI near the midpoint at 46, suggesting the stock may simply be consolidating rather than trending decisively lower. | ||
The trailing four quarters show three consecutive misses, most recently -137.01%, -64.07%, and -30.66%, before the latest quarter turned into a 37.12% beat, though the average surprise across the window remains deeply negative at -48.7%. Earnings | The company should follow the recent beat with another positive surprise in the next reported quarter, due in 30 days, for the earnings trend to be considered genuinely turning. | →Stable |
| CounterThree of the last four quarters were misses of substantial magnitude, and the average surprise is still deeply negative, so a single beat may not represent a durable turnaround. | ||
The engine identifies no clear trading edge, and risk components show leverage at a debt-to-equity reading of 9.3 alongside a beta explicitly flagged at 3.00, well above the 1.3 aggressive-suitability threshold. Suitability rationale | Beta should decline back toward or below the 1.3 threshold and the debt-to-equity reading should ease over the next 12 months for the aggressive-suitability and leverage concerns to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterShort interest reads only a moderate 6.9 on the risk-component scale, suggesting bearish positioning against the stock is not itself extreme despite the elevated beta and leverage. | ||
The quality score of 1.5 sits well below the 4.0 floor cited as grounds to exit, with return on equity, return on assets, and net margin components all at zero and a weak Piotroski F-score of 3 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- At least some core profitability components should move off zero and the quality score should climb toward the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months for the exit signal to reverse.
CounterThe current ratio component reads a solid 4.1, suggesting near-term liquidity is not itself a pressing concern despite the weak profitability elsewhere.
Revenue is declining at -7% year-over-year while the operating margin has compressed to -47.4%, cited explicitly among the value-trap signals alongside high leverage at a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.9.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and operating margin should narrow toward breakeven over the next 12 months for the declining-fundamentals concern to ease.
CounterAnalyst estimates have actually risen 19.5% over the past 30 days, a sentiment proxy the catalyst notes describe positively, suggesting forward expectations may be improving even as trailing figures decline.
The setup failed both the momentum gate at 3.2 against a 4.5 threshold and the asymmetry gate at a deeply negative reward-to-risk ratio of -3.51, with the V8 assessment showing the price already far beyond its target.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover back above the 4.5 gate threshold and the reward-to-risk ratio should turn positive over the next 12 months for both failed gates to clear.
CounterThe setup is instead classified as range-bound with RSI near the midpoint at 46, suggesting the stock may simply be consolidating rather than trending decisively lower.
The trailing four quarters show three consecutive misses, most recently -137.01%, -64.07%, and -30.66%, before the latest quarter turned into a 37.12% beat, though the average surprise across the window remains deeply negative at -48.7%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should follow the recent beat with another positive surprise in the next reported quarter, due in 30 days, for the earnings trend to be considered genuinely turning.
CounterThree of the last four quarters were misses of substantial magnitude, and the average surprise is still deeply negative, so a single beat may not represent a durable turnaround.
The engine identifies no clear trading edge, and risk components show leverage at a debt-to-equity reading of 9.3 alongside a beta explicitly flagged at 3.00, well above the 1.3 aggressive-suitability threshold.
→StableSuitability rationale
- Expectation
- Beta should decline back toward or below the 1.3 threshold and the debt-to-equity reading should ease over the next 12 months for the aggressive-suitability and leverage concerns to clear.
CounterShort interest reads only a moderate 6.9 on the risk-component scale, suggesting bearish positioning against the stock is not itself extreme despite the elevated beta and leverage.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
agilon health shows a recent earnings beat and rising analyst estimates, but quality sits well below the exit threshold, both the momentum and asymmetry gates have failed deeply, and declining revenue with heavy margin compression argue strongly for staying out.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 0.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸High IV: 106%
- ▸Above max pain $60
Catalyst
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-3.41
Upside
-51.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 3.00>1.3, MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 6.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 6.0, Value at 5.8, and Insider at 5.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.7, Quality at 1.5, and Peer rank at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Cash Burn
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 1.5.
- P2Deeply Negative Asymmetry Momentum Failed
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 0 from the current -3.51.
- P3Declining Revenue Margin Compression
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive, exceeding 0% YoY, from the current -7%.
- P4Earnings Turn After Three Misses
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in the next reported quarter.
- P5No Edge Elevated Leverage And Beta
Trip ifBeta falls below 1.5 from the current 3.00.