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Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $144.77: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.79; Below-average business quality.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services ion implantation and other processing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company provides high energy, high current, and medium current... Read more

$144.77+15.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#17 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.09%
Stop $136.00Target $168.18(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$161.00+11.2%3 analysts
$168.18our TP
$144.77price
$161.00mean
$130
$180

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $144.77: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.79; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Axcelis Technologies, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international (non-U.S.) revenue (83.7%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia system shipments (76.0%)
Target reached (-6.4% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.3
P/E (Fwd)31.5
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA38.8
Profit Mgn11.9%
ROE9.7%
Rev Growth3.3%
Beta1.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.79bearish
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$40-72.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational (non-U.S.) revenue84%
    10-K Item 1A: 'International sales...accounted for 83.7% of total revenue in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicAsia system shipments76%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Ion implanter system shipments to customers in Asia represented 76.0% of total system revenue in 2025'
  • HIGHCustomertop-10 customers55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top ten customers accounted for 55.2% of our net sales, in comparison to 45.9% and 51.7% in 2024 and 2023, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO James Coogan resigned effective April 24, 2026. David Ryzhik (SVP Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy) appointed Interim CFO effective March 12, 2026. Coogan's resignation not related to any disagreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Volatile — 7.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Put Call
1.4
Implied Vol
1.6
Short Interest
3.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Beta
3.6
Days To Cover
6.3
Elevated put/call: 1.79High IV: 71%Above max pain $40Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $130.02Resistance $171.61

Price Targets

$136
$168
A.Upside+16.2%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.4% upside)
! Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (23 sells, 0.34% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACLS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $144.77: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.79; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $136.00. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACLS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $168.18 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $136.00. Stop-loss: $136.00.

What are the risks of investing in ACLS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international (non-U.S.) revenue (83.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia system shipments (76.0%); Target reached (-6.4% upside).

Is ACLS overvalued or undervalued?

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.3 (forward 31.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ACLS?

12 analysts cover ACLS with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $161.

What does Axcelis Technologies, Inc. do?Axcelis Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services ion implantation and other processing equipment used in...

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services ion implantation and other processing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company provides high energy, high current, and medium current implanters for various application requirements. It also offers aftermarket lifecycle products and services, including used tools, spare parts, equipment upgrades, maintenance services, and customer training. The company sells its equipment and services to semiconductor chip manufacturers through its direct sales force. Axcelis Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Beverly, Massachusetts.

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