Three consecutive earnings beats averaging over 30% upside surprise and 32% revenue growth confirm strong near-term business momentum in semiconductor test equipment, but a forward P/E of 54.7x, free cash flow that is negative relative to net income, and sole-source supplier concentration leave the stock priced for perfection with meaningful downside if execution falters.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Profile→Stable
- Rich Valuation With Negative Fcf↑Improving
- Sole Source Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026· older than 90 days
FormFactor, Inc. (FORM) Stock Analysis
Temporary headwind edge
Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Wait for pullback to $80.74. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $85.24. Engine's entry $80.74 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
FormFactor designs and manufactures probe cards, probe stations, thermal systems, and cryogenic systems for semiconductor testing across two segments (Probe Cards and Systems). One customer represented 22.9% of fiscal 2025 revenues; probe card sales account for the substantial... Read more
Wait for pullback to $80.74. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $85.24. Engine's entry $80.74 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.05, quality 7.9/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — FormFactor, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS FORM Drops 12% Post Q3 Earnings: Should You Buy the Stock on the Dip? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS FormFactor (FORM) Reports Strong Q3 Results, Stock Remains Signi - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS FormFactor (FORM) Shares Fall 11% After Q3 Beat Despite Strong O - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS FormFactor (NASDAQ:FORM) Q3: strong sales but stock drops 10.5% - StockStory — StockStory Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS FormFactor sinks despite offering up strong Q3 results, guidance (FORM:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 28, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerSK hynix Inc.10-K Item 1: 'SK hynix Inc.| 19.2 | %| | 24.5 | %| | 25.0 | %| | 23.3 | %'
- MEDIUMProductprobe cards10-K Item 1A: 'We derive the majority of our revenues from the sale of our probe card products'
- HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We obtain some of the components and materials used in our products, such as printed circuit board assemblies, plating materials and ceramic substrates, from a sole source'
- LOWGeographicChina7.0%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 7% of our fiscal 2025 revenue and 14% of our fiscal 2024 revenue was derived from sales to customers in China'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-19Item 5.02LOWAt the May 15, 2026 Annual Meeting, FormFactor stockholders approved an amendment to the 2012 Equity Incentive Plan increasing shares reserved for issuance by 5,000,000. Compensatory arrangement update; no officer departure or new appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $80.74. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $85.24. Engine's entry $80.74 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.05, quality 7.9/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $132.43 (+55.4%), stop $75.09 (−13.5%), A.R:R 3.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $132.43 (+55.4% upside). Target $132.43 (+55.4%), stop $75.09 (−13.5%), A.R:R 3.7:1. Stop-loss: $75.09.
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.
FormFactor, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.1 (forward 20.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
16 analysts rate FORM, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 9 analysts publish price targets averaging $152.
What does FormFactor, Inc. do?FormFactor designs and manufactures probe cards, probe stations, thermal systems, and cryogenic systems for...
FormFactor designs and manufactures probe cards, probe stations, thermal systems, and cryogenic systems for semiconductor testing across two segments (Probe Cards and Systems). One customer represented 22.9% of fiscal 2025 revenues; probe card sales account for the substantial majority of revenues from foundry & logic and memory manufacturers.