Three consecutive earnings beats averaging over 30% upside surprise and 32% revenue growth confirm strong near-term business momentum in semiconductor test equipment, but a forward P/E of 54.7x, free cash flow that is negative relative to net income, and sole-source supplier concentration leave the stock priced for perfection with meaningful downside if execution falters.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Profile→Stable
- Rich Valuation With Negative Fcf→Stable
- Sole Source Supplier Concentration→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
FormFactor, Inc. (FORM) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Sell if holding. At $113.30, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers.
FormFactor designs and manufactures probe cards, probe stations, thermal systems, and cryogenic systems for semiconductor testing across two segments (Probe Cards and Systems). One customer represented 22.9% of fiscal 2025 revenues; probe card sales account for the substantial... Read more
Sell if holding. At $113.30, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — FormFactor, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS FormFactor (NASDAQ:FORM) Reports Q1 In Line With Expectations, Stock Jumps 12.6% - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS FORMFACTOR ($FORM) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS FormFactor (FORM) Projected to Post Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Analysts Believe FormFactor (FORM) Is A Mid-Cap AI Stock That Could Go Much Higher - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Intech Investment Management LLC Increases Stock Holdings in FormFactor, Inc. $FORM - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-07-07T12:21:43Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerSK hynix Inc.10-K Item 1: 'SK hynix Inc.| 19.2 | %| | 24.5 | %| | 25.0 | %| | 23.3 | %'
- MEDIUMProductprobe cards10-K Item 1A: 'We derive the majority of our revenues from the sale of our probe card products'
- HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We obtain some of the components and materials used in our products, such as printed circuit board assemblies, plating materials and ceramic substrates, from a sole source'
- LOWGeographicChina7.0%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 7% of our fiscal 2025 revenue and 14% of our fiscal 2024 revenue was derived from sales to customers in China'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-19Item 5.02LOWAt the May 15, 2026 Annual Meeting, FormFactor stockholders approved an amendment to the 2012 Equity Incentive Plan increasing shares reserved for issuance by 5,000,000. Compensatory arrangement update; no officer departure or new appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $113.30, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $110.36. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $125.86 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $110.36. Stop-loss: $110.36.
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5.
FormFactor, Inc. trades at a P/E of 142.1 (forward 44.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover FORM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $145.
What does FormFactor, Inc. do?FormFactor designs and manufactures probe cards, probe stations, thermal systems, and cryogenic systems for...
FormFactor designs and manufactures probe cards, probe stations, thermal systems, and cryogenic systems for semiconductor testing across two segments (Probe Cards and Systems). One customer represented 22.9% of fiscal 2025 revenues; probe card sales account for the substantial majority of revenues from foundry & logic and memory manufacturers.