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AXT Inc (AXTI) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $113.63: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality.

AXT Inc. develops and manufactures compound semiconductor substrates (InP, GaAs, Ge) and raw materials (gallium, pBN crucibles) through its Chinese subsidiary Tongmei, with all manufacturing located in China. Substrate products generated 67% of 2025 consolidated revenue and raw... Read more

$113.63+16.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#18 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
Stop $104.98Target $131.32(resistance)A.R:R -2.3:1
Analyst target$87.75-22.8%4 analysts
$131.32our TP
$113.63price
$87.75mean
$73
$131

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $113.63: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — AXT Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China (all manufacturing)
Concentration risk — Product: substrate product group (67.0%)
Target reached (-33.9% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)140.8
Mkt Cap$6.9B
EV/EBITDA-1377.9
Profit Mgn-14.7%
ROE-5.0%
Rev Growth39.1%
Beta1.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.77neutral
IV168%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina (all manufacturing)
    10-K Item 1: 'All of our substrate products and raw material products are manufactured in the People's Republic of China (PRC or China) by our PRC subsidiaries and PRC joint ventures.'
  • HIGHProductsubstrate product group67%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our substrate product group generated 67%, 68%, and 63% of our consolidated revenue and our raw materials product group generated 33%, 32%, and 37% for 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
8.8
Industry growth leader

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.3
Moat
5.8
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
8.8
Quality concerns
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -2.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $65.02Resistance $134.00

Price Targets

$105
$131
A.Upside+15.6%
A.R:R-2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-33.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXTI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $113.63: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $104.98. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXTI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $131.32 (+16.3% upside). Prior stop was $104.98. Stop-loss: $104.98.

What are the risks of investing in AXTI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China (all manufacturing); Concentration risk — Product: substrate product group (67.0%); Target reached (-33.9% upside).

Is AXTI overvalued or undervalued?

AXT Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 140.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXTI?

11 analysts cover AXTI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $88.

What does AXT Inc do?AXT Inc. develops and manufactures compound semiconductor substrates (InP, GaAs, Ge) and raw materials (gallium, pBN...

AXT Inc. develops and manufactures compound semiconductor substrates (InP, GaAs, Ge) and raw materials (gallium, pBN crucibles) through its Chinese subsidiary Tongmei, with all manufacturing located in China. Substrate products generated 67% of 2025 consolidated revenue and raw materials 33%. The company faces significant U.S.-China trade restrictions including 70% tariffs on wafer imports and Chinese export permit requirements for InP, GaAs, and Ge substrates.

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