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Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $293.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers.

Onto Innovation designs, manufactures, and supports metrology, inspection, and lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, including optical metrology, macro-defect inspection, and advanced packaging lithography tools. The company serves silicon wafer manufacturers, IC... Read more

$293.10+6.0% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#19 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Stop $271.58Target $309.68(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$334.29+14.1%7 analysts
$309.68our TP
$293.10price
$334.29mean
$355

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $293.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)101.9
P/E (Fwd)31.0
Mkt Cap$14.1B
EV/EBITDA49.4
Profit Mgn13.6%
ROE6.8%
Rev Growth1.1%
Beta1.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV87%elevated
Max Pain$130-55.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersole-source component suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant number of our suppliers are the sole source or single source for certain components or subassemblies'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.8

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.6
Forward Pe
3.8
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.6
Forward P/E: 31.0xPEG: 1.36Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.3
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $200.00Resistance $316.00

Price Targets

$272
$310
A.Upside+5.7%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.4% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ONTO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $293.10 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $271.58. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ONTO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $309.68 (+6.0% upside). Prior stop was $271.58. Stop-loss: $271.58.

What are the risks of investing in ONTO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is ONTO overvalued or undervalued?

Onto Innovation Inc. trades at a P/E of 101.9 (forward 31.0). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ONTO?

14 analysts cover ONTO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $334.

What does Onto Innovation Inc. do?Onto Innovation designs, manufactures, and supports metrology, inspection, and lithography systems for the...

Onto Innovation designs, manufactures, and supports metrology, inspection, and lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, including optical metrology, macro-defect inspection, and advanced packaging lithography tools. The company serves silicon wafer manufacturers, IC fabricators, and advanced packaging manufacturers globally, with Semilab USA acquired in Q4 2025 adding wafer contamination monitoring.

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