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Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $251.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Onto Innovation designs, manufactures, and supports metrology and inspection tools for semiconductor manufacturing, including optical metrology, wafer inspection, advanced packaging lithography, and process control software used by silicon wafer manufacturers, IC fabricators,... Read more

$251.40+20.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#20 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.56%
Stop $243.07Target $306.36(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$352.14+40.1%7 analysts
$306.36our TP
$251.40price
$352.14mean
$370

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $251.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Onto Innovation Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Analyst upside: 20%
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Weak overall score: 4.9/10
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)118.4
P/E (Fwd)26.8
Mkt Cap$12.7B
EV/EBITDA45.0
Profit Mgn10.3%
ROE5.3%
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta1.70
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$135-46.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerCustomer A20%
    10-K Item 1: 'Customer A | | 20 %'
  • MEDIUMCustomerCustomer B15%
    10-K Item 1: 'Customer B | | 15 %'
  • MEDIUMCustomerCustomer C14%
    10-K Item 1: 'Customer C | | 14 %'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.9

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
1.9
Forward Pe
4.6
Peg Ratio
5.9
Analyst Target
7.5
Forward P/E: 26.8xPEG: 1.26
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $250.59Resistance $316.00

Price Targets

$243
$306
A.Upside+21.9%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ONTO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $251.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $243.07. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ONTO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $306.36 (+20.4% upside). Prior stop was $243.07. Stop-loss: $243.07.

What are the risks of investing in ONTO?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Expensive valuation.

Is ONTO overvalued or undervalued?

Onto Innovation Inc. trades at a P/E of 118.4 (forward 26.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ONTO?

14 analysts cover ONTO with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $352.

What does Onto Innovation Inc. do?Onto Innovation designs, manufactures, and supports metrology and inspection tools for semiconductor manufacturing,...

Onto Innovation designs, manufactures, and supports metrology and inspection tools for semiconductor manufacturing, including optical metrology, wafer inspection, advanced packaging lithography, and process control software used by silicon wafer manufacturers, IC fabricators, and advanced packaging makers. Over 190 customers in 25+ countries purchased tools in 2025, with three customers each exceeding 10% of revenue.

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