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ZGNErmenegildo Zegna N.V.Sell5.7·$12.56-0.71%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Ermenegildo Zegna trades near its 52-week high with a negative asymmetry ratio — the stock has already surpassed analyst targets by 21% — while delivering two consecutive earnings misses and slow revenue growth, creating a fundamentally unattractive risk-reward profile.

Thesis pillars

  • Stock Overshot Analyst TargetsImproving
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesImproving
  • Rich Valuation Low GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.56 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, markets, and distributes luxury menswear and womenwear, children's clothing, footwear, leather goods, and other accessories worldwide. It offers luxury leisurewear, such as knitwear, jeans, jersey and... Read more

$12.56+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 14 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.36%
IncomeYield1.08%Payout40.00%sustainable
Stop $11.94Target $12.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$14.70+17.1%12 analysts
$12.79our TP
$12.56price
$14.70mean
$16

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.56 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 193d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Mar 18, 2027193d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.9
P/E (Fwd)20.1
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA27.1
Profit Mgn4.0%
ROE8.7%
Rev Growth6.4%
Beta0.88
Dividend1.08%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$15+19.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.4
Quality Rank
4.1
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 193d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.31Resistance $15.02

Price Targets

$12
$13
A.Upside+1.8%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.8% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-03-18 (193d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZGN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.56 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.94. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the ZGN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.79 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $11.94. Stop-loss: $11.94.

What are the risks of investing in ZGN?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is ZGN overvalued or undervalued?

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. trades at a P/E of 35.9 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ZGN?

16 analysts cover ZGN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. do?Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, markets, and distributes luxury menswear and...

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, markets, and distributes luxury menswear and womenwear, children's clothing, footwear, leather goods, and other accessories worldwide. It offers luxury leisurewear, such as knitwear, jeans, jersey and shirts, fabric and leather outerwear, and accessories; formalwear, including formal suits to tuxedos, shirts, blazers, formal coats, and accessories; and leather accessories comprising sneakers and other shoes, bags, belts and small leather accessories. The company is also manufacturing and distributing eyewear, cufflinks and jewelry, beachwear, underwear, and fragrances. In addition, it offers fine jewelry, childrenswear, textile, and home design products. The company sells its products under the ZEGNA, Thom Browne, and TOM FORD FASHION brands. It serves its products through retail stores and online channels. The company was founded in 1910 and is based in Milan, Italy. Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. operates as a subsidiary of Monterubello Societa' Semplice.

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