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RLRalph Lauren CorporationSell5.9·$406.75-1.36%
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Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $406.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenues (59.0%).

Ralph Lauren designs, markets, and distributes luxury lifestyle products — apparel, handbags, footwear, fragrances, and home goods — across three reportable segments: North America (41% of Fiscal 2026 revenues), Europe (31%), and Asia (26%). The company sells through 594 retail... Read more

$406.75+1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#5 of 13 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.67%
IncomeYield0.91%(5y avg 1.80%)Payout24.16%sustainable
Stop $382.45Target $413.17(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$428.00+5.2%16 analysts
$413.17our TP
$406.75price
$428.00mean
$235
$511

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $406.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenues (59.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenues (59.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.3
P/E (Fwd)20.2
Mkt Cap$24.5B
EV/EBITDA16.8
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE34.7%
Rev Growth16.6%
Beta1.37
Dividend0.91%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$200-50.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational revenues59%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 59% of our Fiscal 2026 net revenues were earned outside of the U.S.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicNorth America41%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our North America segment, representing approximately 41% of our Fiscal 2026 net revenues'
  • MEDIUMGeographicEurope31%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our Europe segment, representing approximately 31% of our Fiscal 2026 net revenues'
  • MEDIUMGeographicAsia26%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our Asia segment, representing approximately 26% of our Fiscal 2026 net revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $317.23Resistance $421.60

Price Targets

$382
$413
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $406.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenues (59.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $382.45. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $413.17 (+1.6% upside). Prior stop was $382.45. Stop-loss: $382.45.

What are the risks of investing in RL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenues (59.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.5% away).

Is RL overvalued or undervalued?

Ralph Lauren Corporation trades at a P/E of 27.3 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RL?

28 analysts cover RL with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $428.

What does Ralph Lauren Corporation do?Ralph Lauren designs, markets, and distributes luxury lifestyle products — apparel, handbags, footwear, fragrances, and...

Ralph Lauren designs, markets, and distributes luxury lifestyle products — apparel, handbags, footwear, fragrances, and home goods — across three reportable segments: North America (41% of Fiscal 2026 revenues), Europe (31%), and Asia (26%). The company sells through 594 retail stores, 644 concession-based shop-within-shops, and approximately 9,500 wholesale doors worldwide, with 59% of revenues earned outside the U.S.

Related stocks: KTB (Kontoor Brands, Inc.) · LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co) · GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · COLM (Columbia Sportswear Company) · VFC (V.F. Corporation)
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