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Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, markets, and distributes luxury menswear and womenwear, children's clothing, footwear, leather goods, and other accessories worldwide. It offers luxury leisurewear, such as knitwear, jeans, jersey and... Read more

$12.69+3.3% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#13 of 13 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.25%
IncomeYield1.11%Payout31.58%sustainable
Stop $11.80Target $13.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$13.20+4.0%12 analysts
$13.11our TP
$12.69price
$13.20mean
$11
$15

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 107d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.8
P/E (Fwd)20.5
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE10.5%
Rev Growth0.3%
Beta0.82
Dividend1.11%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV69%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.6
Earnings Growth
2.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/2MDividend: 111.0%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.6
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.4
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 107d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.41Resistance $13.38

Price Targets

$12
$13
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.5% upside)
! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-03 (107d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZGN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $11.80. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the ZGN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.11 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $11.80. Stop-loss: $11.80.

What are the risks of investing in ZGN?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is ZGN overvalued or undervalued?

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. trades at a P/E of 28.8 (forward 20.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ZGN?

16 analysts cover ZGN with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. do?Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, markets, and distributes luxury menswear and...

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, markets, and distributes luxury menswear and womenwear, children's clothing, footwear, leather goods, and other accessories worldwide. It offers luxury leisurewear, such as knitwear, jeans, jersey and shirts, fabric and leather outerwear, and accessories; formalwear, including formal suits to tuxedos, shirts, blazers, formal coats, and accessories; and leather accessories comprising sneakers and other shoes, bags, belts and small leather accessories. The company is also manufacturing and distributing eyewear, cufflinks and jewelry, beachwear, underwear, and fragrances. In addition, it offers fine jewelry, childrenswear, textile, and home design products. The company sells its products under the ZEGNA, Thom Browne, and TOM FORD FASHION brands. It serves its products through retail stores and online channels. The company was founded in 1910 and is based in Trivero, Italy. Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. operates as a subsidiary of Monterubello Societa' Semplice.

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