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GILGildan Activewear, Inc.Sell6.1·$40.98
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Gildan is growing revenue at 64% year-over-year—an industry-leading pace—and has reversed two consecutive prior-period earnings misses with back-to-back beats, while the stock sits roughly 17% below the analyst consensus target with a favorable risk/reward. The central risk is that reported earnings are not translating into cash: free cash flow is negative, the dividend appears uncovered by cash generation, and the asymmetry ratio just misses the minimum entry bar, tempering urgency to add.

Thesis pillars

  • Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
  • Earnings Recovery After Prior Misses↑Improving
  • Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Gildan Activewear, Inc. (GIL) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.98 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Gildan Activewear Inc. manufactures and sells various apparel products. The company provides various activewear products, including T-shirts, fleece tops and bottoms, sports shirts, polos, and tank tops under Gildan, Hanes, Gildan Performance, Gildan Hammer, Gildan Softstyle,... Read more

$40.98+74.1% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#5 of 14 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-10.73%
IncomeYield2.16%(5y avg 1.85%)Payout73.64%
Stop $38.93Target $71.34(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 8.1:1
Analyst target$82.00+100.1%8 analysts
$71.34our TP
$40.98price
$82.00mean
$111

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.98 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 13, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.0
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$7.5B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn1.3%
ROE8.7%
Rev Growth72.3%
Beta1.08
Dividend2.16%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.08bearish
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
6.9
Capitulation risk (RSI 13, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 8.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Speculative
RSI
13 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $40.13Resistance $54.53

Price Targets

$39
$71
A.Upside+74.1%
A.R:R8.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GIL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.98 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 13, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $38.93. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.

What is the GIL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.34 (+74.1% upside). Prior stop was $38.93. Stop-loss: $38.93.

What are the risks of investing in GIL?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Is GIL overvalued or undervalued?

Gildan Activewear, Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.0 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GIL?

14 analysts cover GIL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $82.

What does Gildan Activewear, Inc. do?Gildan Activewear Inc. manufactures and sells various apparel products. The company provides various activewear...

Gildan Activewear Inc. manufactures and sells various apparel products. The company provides various activewear products, including T-shirts, fleece tops and bottoms, sports shirts, polos, and tank tops under Gildan, Hanes, Gildan Performance, Gildan Hammer, Gildan Softstyle, Gildan Heavy Cotton, Gildan Ultra Cotton, Gildan DryBlend, Gildan HeavyBlend, Comfort Colors, American Apparel, ALLPRO, ComfortWash, BEEFY, Bonds and Champion brands. It also offers hosiery products comprising athletic, dress, casual and workwear socks, liner socks, and socks for therapeutic purposes under Gildan, GoldToe, Signature Gold by GoldToe, GoldToe Edition, Peds, MediPeds, Hanes, and Powersox brands. In addition, the company provides men's and boys' underwear products and ladies' panties under Gildan, Gildan Platinum, Gildan Softstyle, Gildan Performance, BareSoft, Gildan Performance, EZBreeze, Bonds, Berlei, Bras N Things, Polo Ralph Lauren brands. Further, it provides women's lingerie, bras and shapewear under Bali, Playtex, WonderBra, Maidenform, Bonds, Bras N Things, Berle brands. It sells its products to wholesale distributors, screenprinters, and embellishers in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, as well as to retailers in North America, including mass merchants, department stores, national chains, specialty retailers, craft stores, and online retailers; and manufactures products for lifestyle brand companies. The company was formerly known as Textiles Gildan Inc. and changed its name to Gildan Activewear Inc. in March 1995. Gildan Activewear Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

Related stocks: FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · KTB (Kontoor Brands, Inc.) · LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation) · GIII (G-III Apparel Group, LTD.)
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