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WWDWoodward, Inc.Hold5.7·$419.00+1.71%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Woodward is an aerospace and defense components manufacturer with four consecutive earnings beats averaging 14.4% above estimates, 23% year-over-year earnings growth, and best-in-class margins and return on equity relative to peers — though a forward price-to-earnings of 37.4x and a price within 1.1% of its 52-week high leave virtually no margin of safety at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Best In Class Margins RoeStable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Strong Growth TrajectoryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Woodward, Inc. (WWD) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 4 days (2026-07-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $419.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: single source of supply; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Woodward designs and manufactures control systems for aerospace and industrial markets from facilities in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. Revenue comes from OEM product sales and aftermarket services; the top five customers — including RTX Corporation, GE Aerospace, and The Boeing... Read more

$419.00-5.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#33 of 64 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.76%
IncomeYield0.31%(5y avg 0.58%)Payout13.89%sustainable
Stop $392.58Target $427.06(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$453.18+8.2%11 analysts
$427.06our TP
$419.00price
$453.18mean
$511

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $419.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: single source of supply; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single source of supply
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.2
P/E (Fwd)38.8
Mkt Cap$25.0B
EV/EBITDA35.5
Profit Mgn12.9%
ROE21.1%
Rev Growth23.4%
Beta0.85
Dividend0.31%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C18.96bearish
IV60%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop five customers36%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to our five largest customers represented approximately 36% of our consolidated net sales for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025'
  • LOWCustomerU.S. Government20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales made directly to U.S. Government agencies and entities ... accounted for approximately 20% of total sales in fiscal year 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographiccustomers outside the United States46%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 46% of our total sales were made to customers in jurisdictions outside of the United States'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle source of supply
    10-K Item 1A: 'In some instances, we depend upon a single source of supply, manufacturing, or logistics support'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-05Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Terence J. Voskuil, EVP Chief Technology Officer Aerospace, notified Woodward of intention to retire effective October 2, 2026. Will continue in current role until effective date. No successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOW
    Frederico F. Curado elected to Board of Directors effective June 1, 2026, appointed to Audit Committee. Board size increased from 9 to 10 directors. No departure cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.5
Forward Pe
2.8
Peg Ratio
3.9
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
6.0
Forward P/E: 38.8xPEG: 2.61
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $382.15Resistance $435.78

Price Targets

$393
$427
A.Upside-5.9%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WWD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $419.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: single source of supply; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $427.06 (+1.9%), stop $392.58 (−6.7%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WWD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $427.06 (-5.9% upside). Target $427.06 (+1.9%), stop $392.58 (−6.7%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $392.58.

What are the risks of investing in WWD?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single source of supply; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Is WWD overvalued or undervalued?

Woodward, Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.2 (forward 38.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about WWD?

17 analysts cover WWD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $453.

What does Woodward, Inc. do?Woodward designs and manufactures control systems for aerospace and industrial markets from facilities in the U.S.,...

Woodward designs and manufactures control systems for aerospace and industrial markets from facilities in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. Revenue comes from OEM product sales and aftermarket services; the top five customers — including RTX Corporation, GE Aerospace, and The Boeing Company — accounted for approximately 36% of fiscal year 2025 net sales.

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