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WSWorthington Steel, Inc.Sell5.2·$35.16+3.56%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Worthington Steel is a value-priced steel processor with a Piotroski score of 7/9 and moderate peer ranking, but the business quality is below the minimum floor at 3.2, earnings have been mixed with 2 recent misses, and heavy automotive customer concentration leaves the company exposed to cyclical demand risk.

Thesis pillars

  • Automotive Customer ConcentrationImproving
  • Target Exceeded Negative AsymmetryImproving
  • Quality Floor FailureImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Worthington Steel, Inc. (WS) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.16: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Worthington Steel is an independent intermediate processor of carbon flat-rolled steel in North America, producing tailor welded blanks and electrical steel laminations for automotive and industrial customers, plus toll-processing services for steel mills. It runs 28... Read more

$35.16+11.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#9 of 14 Steel
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.10%
IncomeYield1.83%Payout376.47%at-risk
Stop $32.56Target $39.10(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$46.00+30.8%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.16: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=7.2x,ratio=0.03x. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Worthington Steel, Inc.

About Worthington Steel, Inc.

Worthington Steel processes carbon flat-rolled steel into precision products, purchasing approximately 2.44 million tons of steel in fiscal 2025 (70% hot-rolled, 20% cold-rolled, 10% galvanized) and running it through 28 manufacturing facilities in the U.S. (19), Canada (2), China, India, Germany, and Mexico (4). Automotive-related customers account for approximately 52% of net sales, and the company's top three customers represented about 33% of total net sales in fiscal 2025.

Revenue comes from both direct-sale steel processing — pickling, re-rolling, hot-dip galvanizing, blanking, slitting, and cutting-to-length performed to customer specification — and toll processing, where the customer retains title to the steel and pays Worthington Steel a service fee without the company carrying inventory risk. Electrical Steel Laminations, made for automotive (including electric vehicles), industrial motor, generator, and transformer customers, and Tailor Welded Products, laser- and friction-stir-welded blanks that reduce vehicle weight for automotive assemblers, supplement the core carbon flat-rolled business. Worthington Steel buys steel from major domestic and foreign mills including Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and United States Steel, and operates joint ventures — Spartan (52%-owned, automotive coating), TWB (55%-owned, tailor welded blanks), and the unconsolidated Serviacero Worthington (50%-owned, Mexico) — that extend its processing footprint. On June 3, 2025, the company acquired a 52% controlling stake in Italy-based Sitem Group, adding processing locations in Italy, France, Slovakia, and Switzerland.

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Steel-tariff policy is a swing factor for Worthington Steel: Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, doubled to 50% effective June 4, 2025, currently discourage import competition and support domestic pricing, but the 10-K notes that if these measures are later relaxed or repealed, a resurgence of foreign steel imports could pressure U.S. metal prices. That tariff exposure compounds a customer-side risk tied to the Detroit Three automakers, whose production idling or a future UAW work stoppage could reduce demand given that automotive-related customers account for roughly 52% of net sales — a dependency the 10-K flags separately from the tariff discussion.

See also: Basic Materials · Steel

From Worthington Steel, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-24
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Sep 30, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.03× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Concentration risk — Customer: automotive-related customers (52.0%)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)205.5
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn0.2%
ROE-1.0%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta2.28
Dividend1.83%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV61%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerautomotive-related customers52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 52% of our net sales are to automotive-related customers.'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop three customers33%
    10-K Item 1: 'During fiscal 2025, our top three customers represented approximately 33.0% of total net sales.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume
6.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.8
Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
5.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.1
Operating Margin
2.3
Roa
2.9
Current Ratio
5.4
Moat
5.8
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=7.2x,ratio=0.03xInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $33.57Resistance $39.21

Price Targets

$33
$39
A.Upside+11.9%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-30 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.16: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $32.56. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.10 (+11.9% upside). Prior stop was $32.56. Stop-loss: $32.56.

What are the risks of investing in WS?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.03× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: automotive-related customers (52.0%); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is WS overvalued or undervalued?

Worthington Steel, Inc. trades at a P/E of 205.5 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WS?

10 analysts cover WS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Worthington Steel, Inc. do?Worthington Steel is an independent intermediate processor of carbon flat-rolled steel in North America, producing...

Worthington Steel is an independent intermediate processor of carbon flat-rolled steel in North America, producing tailor welded blanks and electrical steel laminations for automotive and industrial customers, plus toll-processing services for steel mills. It runs 28 manufacturing facilities across the U.S., Canada, China, India, Germany, and Mexico, serving about 1,200 customers in fiscal 2025; automotive-related customers make up approximately 52% of net sales and the top three customers represent about 33%.

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