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Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.27: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated steel producer in Brazil and internationally. It operates through five segments: Steel Industry, Mining, Logistics, Energy, and Cement. The Steel Segment offers produce and sells of flat... Read more

$1.27+9.0% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#10 of 10 Steel
Stop $1.19Target $1.39(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$1.30+2.4%3 analysts
$1.39our TP
$1.27price
$1.30mean
$1
$2

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.27: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-13.3% upside)
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-8.8
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA5.5
Profit Mgn-4.5%
ROE-9.7%
Rev Growth-5.2%
Beta1.52
Dividend14.52%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

IV122%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -5.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.2
Declining revenue: -5%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
1.2
Roa
1.7
Operating Margin
2.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Current Ratio
4.2
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Obv
1.1
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
1.0
Value Rank
8.0
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1.22Resistance $1.42

Price Targets

$1
$1
A.Upside+9.4%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-13 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SID stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.27: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $1.19. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the SID stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1.39 (+9.0% upside). Prior stop was $1.19. Stop-loss: $1.19.

What are the risks of investing in SID?

Target reached (-13.3% upside); Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is SID overvalued or undervalued?

Companhia Siderurgica Nacional trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SID?

17 analysts cover SID with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $1.

What does Companhia Siderurgica Nacional do?Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated steel producer in Brazil and...

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated steel producer in Brazil and internationally. It operates through five segments: Steel Industry, Mining, Logistics, Energy, and Cement. The Steel Segment offers produce and sells of flat and long steel. The Mining Segment engages in extraction, processing and marketing of iron ore, tin, limestone, and dolomite. The Logistics Segment supplies railways, port concessions, and road fleet. The Cement Segment produces and sells bagged and bulk cement, as well as aggregates, concrete, and other products. The Energy segment is involved in generation and commercialization of energy originating from renewables. It offers flat steel products, such as hot and cold rolled, galvanized, galvalume, pre-painted, and metal sheets products; coil, sheets, and derivatives; tiles and derivatives, pipes, and profiles; long steel products including, reinforcing bars, iron rods, and laminated profiles; food and chemical packaging solutions; and carbochemical products. It also provides steel cutting services; produces and sells cement; operates railways; and generates electric power from its hydroelectric power plants. In addition, the company offers steel solutions and distributions; packaging; logistics services; and certifications. Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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