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WSWorthington Steel, Inc.Sell5.4·$35.56
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Worthington Steel is a value-priced steel processor with a Piotroski score of 7/9 and moderate peer ranking, but the business quality is below the minimum floor at 3.2, earnings have been mixed with 2 recent misses, and heavy automotive customer concentration leaves the company exposed to cyclical demand risk.

Thesis pillars

  • Automotive Customer Concentration↓Deteriorating
  • Target Exceeded Negative Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
  • Quality Floor Failure↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Worthington Steel, Inc. (WS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.56: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Worthington Steel, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel processor in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company offers carbon flat-rolled steel processing services, including pickling, specialty re-rolling, hot dip galvanizing,... Read more

$35.56+10.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#8 of 14 Steel
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.66%
IncomeYield1.68%Payout376.47%at-risk
Stop $33.07Target $39.10(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$46.00+29.4%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.56: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=7.8x,ratio=0.03x. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Worthington Steel, Inc.

About Worthington Steel, Inc.

Worthington Steel's automotive and construction end markets accounted for approximately 52% and 11% of net sales, respectively, in fiscal 2025, when the company purchased about 2.44 million tons of steel — 70% hot-rolled, 20% cold-rolled and 10% galvanized — to run 28 manufacturing facilities across the U.S. (19), Canada (2), China, India, Germany, and Mexico (4).

Worthington Steel earns revenue primarily through direct sale of processed steel, priced on a mix of fixed and index-based supply terms, alongside toll processing where customers retain title to the steel and pay a processing fee without the company carrying inventory risk. Its top three customers represented approximately 33% of total net sales in fiscal 2025, and roughly 52% of net sales flowed to automotive-related customers, including a significant portion tied to the Detroit Three automakers and their suppliers. The company purchases flat-rolled steel from major mills including Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and United States Steel, and sources zinc from a small group of suppliers such as Glencore and Teck Resources at market prices. Contracts with both customers and suppliers are generally short-term or order-by-order rather than long-term, which the filing notes has historically allowed relationships to be replaced without significant business interruption.

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One angle distinct from customer or end-market mix is regulatory exposure tied to climate policy: Worthington Steel is tracking compliance obligations under the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, alongside California's Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act and Climate-Related Financial Risk Act, any of which could raise compliance costs or metal and utility prices across its footprint. Separately, Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum were doubled to 50% effective June 4, 2025, a level the filing warns could reverse and pressure domestic steel prices downward if legal challenge, legislation, or executive action later relaxes the measure.

See also: Basic Materials · Steel

From Worthington Steel, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-08

Recent Developments — Worthington Steel, Inc.

Generated 2026-10-08T11:47:05Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 6, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.03× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Concentration risk — Customer: automotive-related customers (52.0%)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)224.6
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA10.5
Profit Mgn0.2%
ROE-1.0%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta2.23
Dividend1.68%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop three customers33%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top three customers represented approximately 33.0% of total net sales.'
  • HIGHCustomerautomotive-related customers52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 52% of our net sales are to automotive-related customers.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.8
Value Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.1
Operating Margin
2.3
Roa
2.9
Current Ratio
5.4
Moat
5.8
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=7.8x,ratio=0.03xMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $32.06Resistance $40.00

Price Targets

$33
$39
A.Upside+10.0%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=7.8x,ratio=0.03x

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-06 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.56: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $33.07. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.10 (+10.0% upside). Prior stop was $33.07. Stop-loss: $33.07.

What are the risks of investing in WS?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.03× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: automotive-related customers (52.0%); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is WS overvalued or undervalued?

Worthington Steel, Inc. trades at a P/E of 224.6 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WS?

10 analysts cover WS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Worthington Steel, Inc. do?Worthington Steel, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel processor in the United States, Canada,...

Worthington Steel, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel processor in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company offers carbon flat-rolled steel processing services, including pickling, specialty re-rolling, hot dip galvanizing, blanking, slitting, and cutting-to-length; laser welded solutions; precision magnetic steel laminations for the automotive, industrial motor, generator, and transformer industries; tailor and aluminum tailor welded blanks; steel toll processing services for steel mills, large end-users, and service centers; and automotive and electrical steel lamination stampings. It serves the automotive, construction, machinery and equipment, agriculture, heavy truck, and energy sectors. Worthington Steel, Inc. was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.

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