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Gerdau S.A. (GGB) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $4.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced..

Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates,... Read more

$4.60+5.4% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#7 of 10 Steel
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield25.41%
IncomeYield3.14%(5y avg 7.52%)Payout74.20%
Stop $4.28Target $4.85(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$5.03+9.4%6 analysts
$4.85our TP
$4.60price
$5.03mean
$4
$5

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $4.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=8.2x,ratio=0.30x. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Gerdau S.A.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.1
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$9.0B
EV/EBITDA2.1
Profit Mgn2.4%
ROE3.1%
Rev Growth-3.8%
Beta0.94
Dividend3.14%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
3.0
Value Rank
4.1
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=8.2x,ratio=0.30xInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.22Resistance $4.95

Price Targets

$4
$5
A.Upside+5.4%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.8% upside)
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GGB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $4.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $4.28. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GGB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.85 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $4.28. Stop-loss: $4.28.

What are the risks of investing in GGB?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Is GGB overvalued or undervalued?

Gerdau S.A. trades at a P/E of 27.1 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GGB?

20 analysts cover GGB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $5.

What does Gerdau S.A. do?Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business,...

Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles. It also provides special steel products for agricultural, automotive, construction, distribution, energy, industrial, and mining markets. In addition, it operates mines that produce iron ore located in Brazil. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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