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Gerdau S.A. (GGB) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $4.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.3% away).

Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates,... Read more

$4.55-1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 10 Steel
Stop $4.31Target $4.51(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$5.07+11.4%6 analysts
$4.51our TP
$4.55price
$5.07mean
$4
$6

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $4.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.3% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.3% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.1
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$8.7B
EV/EBITDA2.0
Profit Mgn2.4%
ROE3.1%
Rev Growth-3.8%
Beta0.89
Dividend2.57%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
4.1
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $3.69Resistance $4.60

Price Targets

$4
$5
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GGB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $4.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.3% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $4.31. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GGB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.51 (-1.0% upside). Prior stop was $4.31. Stop-loss: $4.31.

What are the risks of investing in GGB?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away); Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Is GGB overvalued or undervalued?

Gerdau S.A. trades at a P/E of 26.1 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GGB?

20 analysts cover GGB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $5.

What does Gerdau S.A. do?Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business,...

Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles. It also provides special steel products for agricultural, automotive, construction, distribution, energy, industrial, and mining markets. In addition, it operates mines that produce iron ore located in Brazil. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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