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WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems, Inc.Hold5.4·$138.65+2.74%
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Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Weak growth.

Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management solutions for stormwater and onsite septic markets, serving residential, nonresidential, infrastructure, and agriculture end markets. FY2025 revenue mix: Pipe 51.8%,... Read more

$138.65+12.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#7 of 19 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.25%
IncomeYield0.59%(5y avg 0.44%)Payout13.21%sustainable
Stop $130.64Target $156.34(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$179.70+29.6%10 analysts
$156.34our TP
$138.65price
$179.70mean
$205

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.8
P/E (Fwd)18.4
Mkt Cap$10.3B
EV/EBITDA13.6
Profit Mgn14.0%
ROE25.1%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta1.29
Dividend0.59%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$175+26.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ten largest customers generated approximately 47% of our net sales in fiscal 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.1
Support Resistance
3.0
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.5
GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $127.85Resistance $143.43

Price Targets

$131
$156
A.Upside+12.8%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $156.34 (+12.8%), stop $130.64 (−6.1%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $156.34 (+12.7% upside). Target $156.34 (+12.8%), stop $130.64 (−6.1%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $130.64.

What are the risks of investing in WMS?

Weak growth.

Is WMS overvalued or undervalued?

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.8 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about WMS?

15 analysts cover WMS with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $180.

What does Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. do?Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management solutions...

Advanced Drainage Systems is the leading manufacturer of thermoplastic corrugated pipe and water management solutions for stormwater and onsite septic markets, serving residential, nonresidential, infrastructure, and agriculture end markets. FY2025 revenue mix: Pipe 51.8%, Infiltrator 17.8%, Allied Products 23.8%, International 6.7%; distributed through 63 manufacturing plants and 39 distribution centers primarily in North America.

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