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WFGWest Fraser Timber Co. LtdSell4.4·$67.70-2.79%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

West Fraser Timber is a lumber producer that has missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with severe shortfalls, carries a quality score below the investment minimum at 1.5 out of 10, and shows persistent cash-burning free cash flow — making it a stock to exit rather than hold despite an optically extreme put/call ratio of 21.67.

Thesis pillars

  • Extreme Put Call Ratio Bearish SignalStable
  • Price Momentum Vs Negative FundamentalsStable
  • Quality Below Minimum ThresholdStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd (WFG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.70: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engineered wood products, northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, newsprint, paper, wood chips and other residuals. It operates through four... Read more

$67.70+7.9% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#4 of 4 Lumber & Wood Production
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-6.98%
IncomeYield1.84%(5y avg 1.45%)Payout72.19%
Stop $62.98Target $72.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$83.67+23.6%6 analysts
$72.79our TP
$67.70price
$83.67mean
$90

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.70: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd

Generated 2026-07-06T18:42:02Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)29.6
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA-28.8
Profit Mgn-21.9%
ROE-18.6%
Rev Growth-8.6%
Beta1.13
Dividend1.84%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV49%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.3
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
6.5
Cash-burning: FCF -7% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
2.5

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 184.0%
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $63.61Resistance $71.95

Price Targets

$63
$73
A.Upside+7.5%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WFG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.70: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $62.98. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $72.79 (+7.9% upside). Prior stop was $62.98. Stop-loss: $62.98.

What are the risks of investing in WFG?

Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0).

Is WFG overvalued or undervalued?

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 29.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WFG?

9 analysts cover WFG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $84.

What does West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd do?West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and...

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engineered wood products, northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, newsprint, paper, wood chips and other residuals. It operates through four segments: Lumber, North America Engineered Wood Products, Pulp & Paper, and Europe Engineered Wood Products. The Lumber segment produces spruce, pine, fir and southern yellow pine lumber, douglas fir, hemlock, wood chips, and other residuals. The North America Engineered Wood Products segment manufactures oriented strand board, laminated veneer lumber, medium-density fibreboard, plywood, and particleboard, with OSB products marketed under brands such as Durastrand pointSIX, Pinnacle Stabledge, TruFlor pointSIX and TruFlor, Rimboard, SteadiTred, QuakeZone, Windstorm, TallWall and Trubord, and SolarBord, Trubord, TruDeck, StableDeck and StableWall, DuraSmart, Stable RVand NorCore; and MDF products under Ranger, WestPine, and EcoGold. The Pulp & Paper segment produces northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), newsprint, and bleached chemithermomechanical pulp used to produce various paper products, including printing and writing papers, paper products, and tissue. The Europe Engineered Wood Products segment produces OSB, particleboard, and MDF applications including cabinet doors, mouldings and interior wall paneling under the SterlingOSB Zero, CaberFloor, and CaberMDF brands. It also provides bioenergy and green raw materials. Its products are used in home construction, repair and remodeling, paper, tissue, and box materials, and industrial applications. It sells its products to major retail chains, dealers, contractor supply yards, and wholesalers, as well as industrial customers for further processing or as components for other products in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

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