UFP Industries trades at an attractive forward multiple of 15.4x with a PEG of 0.78, but persistent earnings misses across all four recent quarters and negative free cash flow quality undermine the value thesis and require earnings improvement before the discount narrows.
Thesis pillars
- Asymmetry Gap Limits Upside↓Deteriorating
- Four Quarter Earnings Miss Streak↓Deteriorating
- Value Discount With Peg Below One↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).
UFP Industries designs, manufactures, and distributes wood and composite products across three segments — Retail Solutions, Packaging, and Construction — with operations in the U.S., Mexico, Canada, Spain, India, and Australia. The company serves big-box retailers, industrial... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 105d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About UFP Industries, Inc.
About UFP Industries, Inc.
UFP Industries' three segments — Retail Solutions, Packaging, and Construction — collectively make the company the largest converter of solid sawn softwood lumber from North American primary producers, purchasing an estimated 6.4% of the 56 billion board feet of North American softwood lumber production in 2025. Lumber costs, including plywood, represented 41.6% of net sales in 2025, versus 40.4% in 2024. The Retail Solutions segment services The Home Depot and Lowe's, which accounted for 17% and 11% of total net sales, respectively.
UFPI earns revenue across three distinct end markets. The Retail Solutions segment sells pressure-treated lumber (ProWood), composite decking (Deckorators), and exterior siding (UFP Edge) to big-box retailers and independent distributors; the company estimates it produces approximately 28% of all residential treated wood in the U.S. The Packaging segment designs custom structural packaging, pallets (PalletOne), and protective materials for agricultural, automotive, and durable-goods customers. The Construction segment supplies roof trusses, wall panels, and engineered wood to factory-built housing manufacturers, site-built residential and commercial builders, and concrete-forming contractors — with an estimated 35% share of roof trusses used in factory-built housing. Products are generally priced to customers at a quoted fixed price or indexed to the lumber market with a fixed-dollar adder, meaning lumber market volatility flows directly into revenue and gross profit. Export sales totaled approximately $239.5 million in 2025, down from $258.9 million in 2024.
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Customer concentration is the clearest extractable risk: The Home Depot and Lowe's combined for approximately 28% of total net sales in fiscal 2025, a ratio that has held steady across 2023, 2024, and 2025. The 10-K flags this explicitly, noting that a significant portion of sales are concentrated with two customers. UFP's raw material base is similarly concentrated: southern yellow pine made up 75% of lumber purchases in 2025, sourced from mills across Texas to the Carolinas, though the company states it is not dependent on any particular source of supply.
See also: Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production
From UFP Industries, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — UFP Industries, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS UFP Industries Appoints Scott Worthington as Vice President of Investor Relations — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Deckorators Announces Expansion of Outdoor Living Product Line — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UFP Industries Expands Deckorators Distribution Partnership with Wausau Supply Co. — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS DA Davidson Maintains Buy Rating on UFP Industries, Lowers Price Target — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS DA Davidson Maintains Buy on UFP Industries, Lowers Price Target to $96 — benzinga Oct 30, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerThe Home Depot17%10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to The Home Depot and Lowes comprised 17% and 11%, respectively, of our total net sales in fiscal 2025'
- LOWCustomerLowes11%10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to The Home Depot and Lowes comprised 17% and 11%, respectively, of our total net sales in fiscal 2025'
- MEDIUMCommoditysouthern yellow pine10-K Item 1: 'southern yellow pine (75%), spruce-pine-fir (12%), and douglas fir (4%), while the remaining 9% of lumber purchases comprise various other species'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-22Item 5.01LOWPatrick M. Benton, President of UFP Construction, appointed EVP of Operation Integration effective July 1, 2026. Mike Ellerbrook appointed President of UFP Construction effective July 1, 2026. Clean handoff with named successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Prior stop was $80.75. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $82.30 reached (−4.6% from $86.31); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $80.75. Stop-loss: $80.75.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
UFP Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.8 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate UFPI, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $95.
What does UFP Industries, Inc. do?UFP Industries designs, manufactures, and distributes wood and composite products across three segments — Retail...
UFP Industries designs, manufactures, and distributes wood and composite products across three segments — Retail Solutions, Packaging, and Construction — with operations in the U.S., Mexico, Canada, Spain, India, and Australia. The company serves big-box retailers, industrial packagers, and homebuilders, with approximately 13,800 employees at December 27, 2025; The Home Depot and Lowe's together accounted for 28% of 2025 net sales.