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UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $89.10: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

UFP Industries designs, manufactures, and supplies products made from wood, wood composites, and other materials to retail, packaging, and construction markets through subsidiaries in the U.S., Mexico, Canada, Spain, India, and Australia. Revenue from three segments; The Home... Read more

$89.10+8.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#3 of 4 Lumber & Wood Production
Stop $83.54Target $96.57(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$111.00+24.6%5 analysts
$96.57our TP
$89.10price
$111.00mean
$125

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $89.10: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.6
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA8.9
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE9.3%
Rev Growth-9.0%
Beta1.44
Dividend1.55%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerThe Home Depot17%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to The Home Depot and Lowes comprised 17% and 11%, respectively, of our total net sales in fiscal 2025'
  • LOWCustomerLowes11%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to The Home Depot and Lowes comprised 17% and 11%, respectively, of our total net sales in fiscal 2025'
  • MEDIUMCommoditylumber42%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our lumber costs, including plywood, as a percentage of net sales were 41.6% in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.01LOW
    Patrick M. Benton appointed EVP of Operation Integration effective July 1, 2026. Mike Ellerbrook appointed President of UFP Construction, LLC effective July 1, 2026. Routine officer role changes; no departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Revenue shrinking — -9.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.3
Earnings Growth
6.4
Declining revenue: -9%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.6
Net Margin
2.3
Roe
3.1
Fcf Quality
3.2
Roa
3.7
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
7.8
Current Ratio
8.4
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 40% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $86.12Resistance $98.39

Price Targets

$84
$97
A.Upside+8.4%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UFPI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $89.10: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $83.54. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UFPI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $96.57 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $83.54. Stop-loss: $83.54.

What are the risks of investing in UFPI?

Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is UFPI overvalued or undervalued?

UFP Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.6 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UFPI?

11 analysts cover UFPI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $111.

What does UFP Industries, Inc. do?UFP Industries designs, manufactures, and supplies products made from wood, wood composites, and other materials to...

UFP Industries designs, manufactures, and supplies products made from wood, wood composites, and other materials to retail, packaging, and construction markets through subsidiaries in the U.S., Mexico, Canada, Spain, India, and Australia. Revenue from three segments; The Home Depot and Lowe's together account for 28% of net sales.

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