Skip to main content

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $79.17: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

UFP Industries manufactures and distributes wood and composite products through three segments: Retail Solutions (treated lumber, Deckorators composite decking, trim), Packaging (pallets, structural packaging), and Construction (trusses, wall panels, factory-built housing),... Read more

$79.17+13.2% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#3 of 4 Lumber & Wood Production
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.52%
IncomeYield1.82%(5y avg 1.10%)Payout30.72%sustainable
Stop $76.58Target $89.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$103.00+30.1%5 analysts
$89.61our TP
$79.17price
$103.00mean
$115

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $79.17: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.8Qual3.9Grw3.2Mom1.8Sent6.8Ins5.0Peer4.6Tech7.1Risk7.25.0OVERALL

Recent Developments — UFP Industries, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.2
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA8.2
Profit Mgn4.3%
ROE8.4%
Rev Growth-8.4%
Beta1.29
Dividend1.82%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerThe Home Depot17%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Home Depot and Lowes, which accounted for approximately 17% and 11%, respectively, of our total net sales in fiscal 2025'
  • LOWCustomerLowes11%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales to The Home Depot and Lowes comprised 17% and 11%, respectively, of our total net sales in fiscal 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.01LOW
    Patrick M. Benton appointed EVP of Operation Integration effective July 1, 2026; Mike Ellerbrook appointed to succeed him as President of UFP Construction LLC. No reason cited for the leadership transition.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Revenue shrinking — -8.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.4
Earnings Growth
6.1
Declining revenue: -8%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 182.0%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.7
Net Margin
2.2
Roe
2.8
Roa
3.4
Fcf Quality
4.6
Moat
4.6
Piotroski F
7.8
Current Ratio
8.4
Earnings quality warning: 59% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 68d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
26 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $78.95Resistance $98.39

Price Targets

$77
$90
A.Upside+13.2%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (68d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UFPI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $79.17: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $76.58. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UFPI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $89.61 (+13.2% upside). Prior stop was $76.58. Stop-loss: $76.58.

What are the risks of investing in UFPI?

Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is UFPI overvalued or undervalued?

UFP Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.2 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UFPI?

11 analysts cover UFPI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $103.

What does UFP Industries, Inc. do?UFP Industries manufactures and distributes wood and composite products through three segments: Retail Solutions...

UFP Industries manufactures and distributes wood and composite products through three segments: Retail Solutions (treated lumber, Deckorators composite decking, trim), Packaging (pallets, structural packaging), and Construction (trusses, wall panels, factory-built housing), operating across the U.S. and internationally. The Home Depot and Lowes accounted for 17% and 11% of total net sales respectively in fiscal 2025.

Related stocks: SSD (Simpson Manufacturing Company, ) · BCC (Boise Cascade, L.L.C.) · WFG (West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited)